New article out today. Thread on the background and some details that were left out of this article due to the normal limitations, and a lack of imagination on my part warontherocks.com/2019/11/caliph…
This article is a follow up to an article we called "Don't Kill the Caliph." The intent in that piece was to argue that leaving Abu Bakr in place as Caliph without a caliphate could help weaken the group (considering his disastrous decisions): warontherocks.com/2016/06/dont-k…
His killing marked the start of a critical transition for the group, and a vulnerable time. Mostly because of legitimacy. The literature on leadership targeting largely looks at survival after removal. We are emphasizing leaders selection, and arguing that legitimacy is the key.
The Islamic State thinks about legitimacy differently than other groups, and has come up with its own method to transfer it from leader to leader when the time comes. Understanding the history of IS, I asked my CT class to predict who the next caliph of ISIS would be.
The answer was 1) a religious scholar or Shari'a member, 2) someone with a Quraysh tribal tie, and 3) would be unknown to us all - just like the last two new leaders were. Both Abu Bakr and Abu Umar before him were not only unknown to us, but their identity hid on purpose.
which is a strange way to do business. But what it does is puts legitimacy into the position, not the person. Being qualified but anonymous reinforces this point. An important question to ask now is if being a caliph (vice amir/leader of just a group) makes a difference.
As @ImaraWaTijara wrote in 2008, the group has been a proto-caliphate since 2006 and called its leader the "amir of the faithful," which only caliphs used (although not the Ottoman caliphs according to one historian) hudson.org/research/9854-…
The claim that the Islamic State of Iraq amir was the proto-caliph of a future Islamic State wasn't a complete rejection of al-Qaeda, but after OBL's death it probably sealed the probability of a future break. We will hopefully know more due to captured documents.
We cut out of the article the interesting fact that the group made sure to collect a new round of pledges to the sitting "caliph" after the fall of Raqqa and Mosul, as described in this article about the "Guerrilla Caliph." ctc.usma.edu/guerrilla-cali…
This was an inoculation against any province or affiliate who tried to break from the group in the event of Abu Bakr's death. If you pledged post-territorial caliphate, you better have a good reason why you can't pledge to the new one. That kind of thing. It is an interesting
question whether you can pledge to a weak caliph. There is historical precedence for it, where outlying emirates pledged to a weak caliph in return for a sanction for their own local sovereignty over Muslim communities far from the heartland. Kennedy also talks about this in his
book: The Caliphate: History of an Idea amazon.com/Caliphate-Hist…
he also mentions that Ibn Khaldun was a proponent of the requirement adhered to in the Islamic State's succession doctrine that a legitimate caliph would come from the Quraysh lineage. This tie will be important to examine once we do know the new caliph's identity.
Both Abu Umar and Abu Bakr had pretty uncontested ties to tribes that descended from the Quraysh. Bet the next one does as well, and this means that those candidates with really sketchy claims probably didn't make the cut. In this vulnerable period, no risk.
The focus on folks who are running the day to day operations of the IS insurgency has not been a good place to look. The group is fine w/ having people run things for the amir/caliph: Abu Umar had Abu Hamza; Abu Bakr had Hajji Bakr, Abu Ali al-Anbari, and recently Hajji Abdullah.
This group runs a clean chain of command, and a separate line of succession. It is probably an advantage to keep them separate. Earn your chops young, then be groomed for future leadership just in case. Keep multiple kunyas to stay alive and anonymous, even from your own.
Thanks to @Minalami @ajaltamimi @hxhassan @ToreRHamming @colebunzel @Mr0rangetracker all for having some great analysis on this topic over the last month. We greatly enjoyed your insights and wisdom. Cheers. Corrections/comments welcome. End of thread//
@Minalami @ajaltamimi @hxhassan @ToreRHamming @colebunzel @Mr0rangetracker ADD: @DanieleRaineri who helped the most and of course I left out like a moron.
