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1/ Mars settlements get way more attention in the press. But I'm far more excited by the idea of asteroid mining. Why? My guess is that asteroid mining will become profitable decades before a Mars settlement could turn a profit. A space effort that turns a profit will grow.
2/ The USA Apollo missions went to the Moon and landed 6 times. Then nothing for decades. Why? No profit. Granted, knowledge. But not knowledge that got people very excited. If asteroid mining could turn a profit then it would drive a bigger sustained human role in space.
3/ An expensive Mars expedition that can't stay there and earn a profit will end up like Apollo. We really should think about what we can do in space that will become self-funded. Beyond satellites what's the next big way to make space bucks?
4/ Asteroid mining faces either high costs of humans operating in the asteroid belt or costs of moving asteroids slowly closer to Earth. Seems like it only makes sense if the ores on a specific asteroid are very rich. So how about exploratory robotic asteroid miners?
5/ Asteroid visits have been done. e.g.NEAR-EROS. But these probes lacked the ability to visit many asteroids. We need explorer probes, perhaps nuclear-powered, that can do a lot of sustained prospecting for years. Find small asteroids rich in expensive minerals.
6/ So seriously, we should discuss space industrialization and put our focus there. The exploration and settlement will come with it if we can make profits in space. The Ferengi have the right idea.
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