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Thanksgiving is the start of prediction season. Investment banks are the first pundits to make forecasts.bloomberg.com/amp/news/artic…

I prefer to follow a Crash Davis approach:

"We gotta tweet one day at a time."

"I'm just happy to be here on financial Twitter. Hope I can help ."
You want forecasts? Goldman's got em:

markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/goldm…

news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…

Alternatively, you can adopt the Crash Davis approach: "I just wanna give Twitter my best shot and, the good Lord willing, things will work out."
Howard Marks:

"Nobody says, 'My opinion is X, and I think I’m wrong.” We all think that our opinions are correct.' It's one thing to have an opinion, but quite another to believe that it's necessarily right.”

"I’m not that smart, and I’m never that sure."google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Fred Wilson: "I read a piece on Alan Shugart, the founder of Seagate, one of the most successful disk drive companies. Alan was quoted as saying that 'cash is more important than your mother.' That got my attention because mothers are really important." avc.com/2019/11/cash-m…
"Cash is everything in a startup. It is the fuel that keeps the car running. Startups fail largely because they run out of cash. Forecasting cash is more art than science, particularly in a growing company. You have to engage in cash forecasting [and] engage in it regularly..."
There have been a lot of breathless articles lately about the need for startups to "get profitable." What's really happening is business are being forced to focus on cash and cash management. Shit happens. Having cash gives you optionality. Not having cash when needed is deadly.
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ Seattle has 484 pinball machines out for public play. That’s a pinball-to-person ratio of 1:1,835, making Seattle the No. 2 pinball city in the US. Portland is in first place with 1:1,141. Chicago, 1:14,524; New Orleans, 1:20,700; New York, 1:28,743. seattletimes.com/pacific-nw-mag…
2/ The first time I saw a dead body was the victim of a mob hit:

"Ben Cichy, who controlled Seattle pinball licenses — and was a close friend of King County Prosecutor Charles O. Carroll. On May 31, 1969, Cichy was found dead in 5 feet of water near his yacht on Yarrow Point."
3/ I wrote a 25iQ blog post about Seattle's "tolerance policy."

"Before his death Mr. Cichy contributed to my childhood education when, together with some friends, I found a chest buried near his home filled with Playboy magazines from the early 1960s." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"We’re starting to see a period where valuation is going to be the driver for future returns"

As opposed to all the other times when the tooth fairy drives future returns? reuters.com/article/us-usa…
A P/E ratio is only a shortcut for valuation.

"The forward P/E ratio for Stoxx 600 is 15.4 beow the 19.3 forward P/E of tS&P 500"

Contra: "Expected long-term cash flows, discounted by the cost of capital—not reported earnings—determine stock prices." expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.p…
"Earnings offer a shortcut, freeing investors from the subjective and time-consuming need to assess long-term cash-flow prospects."

...Earnings are useful in valuing stocks only if they help forecast a company’s future cash flows." Rappaport and Mauboussin
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Baba97
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Laura Rozen
@lrozen
Bloomberg today: As a result of publicity Giuliani generated...2ppl said the odds of DOJ dropping the case against Firtash have plummeted
“because it would look like a quid pro quo. Others connected to the case agreed.” bloomberg.com/amp/news/artic…
NYT piece seems thru the looking glass version of same development: Giuliani+ effort to lobby DOJ to drop Firtash case set back by publicity
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PatriotTxMOM-SuzyQ #FreeFLYNN⭐️⭐️⭐️
@2christian
32 days since last post. Mirror? 23? Pain??? @POTUS 4 10 20 DJT

A BREAK in the DAM
Their party just fractured!
The flood is coming.
Emails, videos, audio. pics, etc
FBI accidentally deletes texts?
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Former HUD Assistant IG Indicted for Concealing Procurement Fraud Scheme Julian Castro was HUD Secretary during some of this time
Sec_y = SECRETARY CASTRO?????

These ppl are sick! NOW U KNOW WHY HE IS RUNNING FOR @POTUS, HE THINKS IT WILL PROTECT HIM

justice.gov/opa/pr/former-…
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pippocamminadritto
@guado77
...provano a mostrare che questo sia un "mondo" meraviglioso quanto più possono...Eurodollar timidamente si porta a sostegno di #ES_F ma #FED Fund Futures segnalano ancora ZERO chance di un rate hike e sono ancora in negativo per il 2019!!!
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...aggiornamento sulla liquidità globale,come detto il miglior indicatore di volatilità=liquidità lo avete dalla differenza tra max e min sul ticks Index US,serve uno "spread" >2.500 stabile altrimenti "no party"
CBs e Trump Boys sono in controllo totale, establishment brinda...
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Prαn Arorα
@PranArora9
Tweet-Storm - Investing in Gold -a long bet -2025

1/1 Do you know that in August 2011,international gold-price was US $ 1948.And US $ vs rupee was at Rs 44.73

Due to above , in 2011, domestic gold-price for 10 gm(Tola ) price was Rs 30745 (One ounce contains 28.34 gms )
1/2 Today international gold-price is US $ 1290 and domestic gold-price per 10 gram in Indian rupees is Rs 32090 .

So although international gold-price came down by 33% in last 8 years ( from 1948 to 1290 ) , domestic gold-price has remained same due to rupee depreciation.
1/3 Now if one has to take a long call ,let's say upto 2025 (as asset cycles happen to be of very long duration) .Either we can assume that there won't be any change in prices or we should be looking at it from different angles ! Here’re few scenarios to ponder upon :
Read 21 tweets
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Sursdik
@SURSDIK
Is President Obama Reading A Muslim Book Called The Post-American World? wafflesatnoon.com/is-president-o…
Why was this immediately disregarded as false?
What is ‘Post-American World by Fareed Zakaria’?
Why is this relevant?
Why would the President of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA be reading this book?
What church did BO attend as pre-POTUS?
Who was BO’s mentor?
How is Alwaleed and HRC connected?
Who was HRC’s mentor?
How is Alwaleed and Bush Sr./Jr. connected?
What occurred post 9-11?
What war did we enter into?
What was the purpose and disclosures given re: justification?
Who financed 9-11?
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