Thread by @iwelsh

Got some very good advice recently. I'm right about a lot of things, and I can see where the world is going quite accurately. I'm 10 to 15 or more years ahead of people on a number of issues.

And being right has done SHIT for me.

I mean, I've been right, publicly, about important stuff. Crimea, back in 2008. The Housing Bubble. I called the month and bottom of the financial crisis and said that the next President after Obama would be a right wing populist.

Blah, blah, blah.

now I don't say this to brag. It's what I'm good at, and I'm bad at things that are far more important in our society. I have been profoundly stupid about this. I tried to warn people, I thought being right publicly would matter. It didn't, at all. I'm a d-list minor celeb.

There are tons of public intellectuals who are big fucking names who have been wrong about everything and the major thrust of their careers. I've been right about the stuff I was most confident about, and am a nobody, poor and just recovering from years of illness.

I can't even say how stupid I was to think that being right mattered, unless it was the sort of being right you could turn into money.

That's the only kind that matters in our society.

I find this embarassing. I'm 51 years old and have been making this mistake all my life.

Humiliating.

Anyway, the good advice was simple. Don't waste any time or effort trying to convince people where the world is going. Just maneuver myself so I'm ready when it gets there.

the problem, of course, is that the future I saw -- a dystopian police surveillance state crumbling amidst ecological and climate collapse with neo-feudal billionaires: it was bad, and I thought maybe people might not do this fucking stupid thing if I proved over and over again..

that when I say something, and I say "I'm usually right about this sort of thing" I'm going to be right about this fucking thing.

But no, most humans can't learn. Hopefully I can learn to not waste my time trying to convince people not to destroy their societies and their world.

this probably comes across as arrogant as fuck, and in a sense it is. That said, the sheer stupidity and foolishness I have embraced sickens me.

Looking back it's clear that 2009 was where I should have said "OK, this doesn't work, it's a waste of time."

So. climate change and ecological collapse is going to be far worse than most people think. Water and food are going to be huge problems, blah, blah, blah. You're told. Plan for it or don't.

I still need to make a living, so I'll write, but I expect little from it.

and it's not where my energy will go.

This stuff is baked in, we've already decided as a species to do this idiocy, it's too late to change that (and sure will be in 10 to 15 years), so what I'm going to do is say "this future is a given, I need to get ready for it."

I would suggest you do the same. This is the sort of thing I'm almost always right about.

<grin>

And I'm not wrong this time.

The politics has failed, stop trying to save the maximum # of people and start figuring out who you want to save specifically.