Sam technically lost the bet but it was very close. He stacked the deck against himself but nailed two out of three predictions. Only the first missed, and by 15-20%. daniellemorrill.com/2020/01/result…
Another “directionally right, technically wrong” bet was @bhorowitz vs @felixsalmon.
Ben bet that 10% of Americans would use Bitcoin to buy something by 2019. That didn’t happen.
But Felix thought BTC would go to zero. And that really didn’t happen. npr.org/sections/money…
Ben bet that 10% of Americans would use Bitcoin to buy something by 2019. That didn’t happen.
But Felix thought BTC would go to zero. And that really didn’t happen. npr.org/sections/money…
A third example: @bryan_caplan vs @MarkSteynOnline.
Caplan bet that no EU member with a population over 10 million in 2007 would officially exit before Jan 1, 2020. Steyn bet they would.
But if Brexit occurs on Jan 31, 2020, Caplan will have barely won. econlib.org/i-win-my-eu-be…
Caplan bet that no EU member with a population over 10 million in 2007 would officially exit before Jan 1, 2020. Steyn bet they would.
But if Brexit occurs on Jan 31, 2020, Caplan will have barely won. econlib.org/i-win-my-eu-be…
Observations:
1) Public bets on the future are becoming more common
2) The pro-tech, Bitcoin, decentralization side was directionally accurate in each case but a little too early
3) Binary bets are easy to score, but don’t capture closeness
1) Public bets on the future are becoming more common
2) The pro-tech, Bitcoin, decentralization side was directionally accurate in each case but a little too early
3) Binary bets are easy to score, but don’t capture closeness
