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What score would she have given him if he’d actually won?
I’m sorry, but it is not only not credible to deny your leader had anything to do with the worst defeat in 85 years, not only actively dishonest, but signals with piercing clarity that you don’t actually care if you win or not, so long as you know you’re in the right.
Nobody is asking Long-Bailey to trash Corbyn. But if Labour is simply going to blame the media for its defeat every five years then there is no point even contesting another election.
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Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
The first thing the Queen says is that the government’s priority is to leave the EU on 31st January and we must take the opportunities. She started her last speech exactly the same way, except then it was the 31st October.
‘A modern, fair, points-based immigration system’. This is government by slogan. It means nothing. And it is the profoundest indignity to make her say it and make us hear it.
‘Responsible fiscal strategy’ alert, for anyone playing an early drinking game. (I’m with you in spirit.)
Read 7 tweets
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Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
One thing we’ve learnt is the opinion of the general public ultimately counts for more than opinion of the Labour membership. Before the vote there’ll be polls showing who the public prefers and who it mistrusts. To disregard them will be the most unforgivable self-indulgence.
We can’t keep pretending the general public is a mirror of Labour membership or that because Labour membership is enthusiastic about someone the general public will feel the same way. The Tories only won when they learnt that lesson. Labour will keep losing till it does the same.
In 2001 Tories had choice of centrist, pragmatic Ken Clarke and swivel-eyed dogmatist Iain Duncan Smith. They chose man Labour wanted.

In 2005 they had choice between hardliner David Davis and ostensibly moderate, modernising David Cameron, and chose the man the country wanted.
Read 4 tweets
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Jonathan Lis
@jonlis1
After catastrophes of Johnson, Brexit, Corbyn have been digested, next big story will be collapse of Lib Dems. Last year they were being talked of as next official opposition party. It now seems as though they’ll end up with seven fewer MPs than at the end of the last parliament.
Lib Dem problems pre-date Swinson. Still great anger about coalition, tuition fees and lack of contrition. It’s however fair to say Swinson made a lot of missteps very fast, spent far too much energy attacking Labour and was hugely arrogant saying she could be PM.
Perhaps the Lib Dems’ failure was best summed up by the ‘Swinson’s Lib Dems’ bus. That repeated the basic error of Theresa May in 2017: namely, if you’re going to build a presidential-style campaign, make sure your presidential-style candidate is an electoral asset.
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The Moscow Project
@moscow_project
.@RepAdamSchiff: "If someone sacrifices the national interests in favor of his own and is not removed from office, our democracy is in jeopardy. It's just that simple."
@RepAdamSchiff .@RepAdamSchiff: "This is Trump first, not America first, not American ideals first, and the result has and will continue to be grave harm to our nation if this chamber does not stand up and say it is wrong."
@RepAdamSchiff "Support for Ukraine security and reform is critical not only to our own national security, but that to other allies and emerging democracies around the world. This widely accepted fact makes Trump's abuse of power and withholding of vital support all the more disturbing."
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, Hispanics* are a pretty huge part of the story about how Texas has become more purple and it's weird that I'm seeing punditry to the contrary!

* Asian and "other" or mixed-race voters also an important part of the story, but we'll leave that aside for now.
Here's a comparison between 2004 (Bush/Kerry) and 2018 (Cruz/Beto). Democrats gained ground among both whites *and* Hispanics, but the gains among Hispanics are larger.

Whites: R+ 49 (2004); R+32 (2018)
Hispanics: D+1 (2004) D +29 (2018)
Meanwhile, Hispanics have grown from 20% of the electorate in 2004 to 26% in 2018. They're still underperforming in comparison to their share of the voting-eligible population, but that's helped Democrats too.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, moderate Democrats seem to be more popular with general election voters after all. 53eig.ht/30HJdqf
Bernie's polling is decent, but that he does the 2nd-best against Trump (after Biden) is partly an artifact of name recognition. For instance, Buttigieg polls worse than Bernie vs. Trump. But Buttigieg actually has better favorables than Bernie among voters who know who he is.
It's certainly a messy relationship. Some liberals, including Bernie, have decent (though not great) polling. Some moderates don't. But favorability ratings, which allow voters to say they don't recognize a candidate, are a better way to assess this stuff than head-to-head polls.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, early presidential primary polls are fairly predictive. 53eig.ht/2PtbSd7
You have to adjust for name recognition, though. Biden, at just south of 30 percent, is still something like a 2:1 underdog. And Bernie's position at 20 percent, as I wrote yesterday, is tenable but not great.
Per the chart above, Buttigieg's position is roughly as good as Bernie's on a "polls only" basis, or maybe a bit better. Empirically, you'd slightly prefer to be polling at ~10% with low name recognition than ~20% with high name recognition.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, the chart actually shows clear evidence of the beer-wine frontier, with certain types of sprits (e.g. scotch, brandy/cognac) straddling the frontier. 🍺🍷
A few highbrow beers (although there's nothing *truly* highbrow on here) creep over into wineland, but that's sort of what you'd expect.
👏 WINE 👏 TRACK 👏 BEER 👏 TRACK 👏 HAS 👏 BEEN 👏 SCIENTIFICALLY 👏 VALIDATED 👏
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Mark Grondin
@SpectrumPulse
I feel like driving up some controversy, so how about a thread of Hot Takes/Unpopular Opinions! You know the drill, one like = one take/opinion.

Start easy: the blunt awkwardness/cringe of 'Blurryface' is the point of taking the piss out of Tyler. I stand by my light 9/10.
2. I don't hate Nickelback's 'Dark Horse' - it's easily a record for them at their most tasteless, but the frat-bro swagger of it helps some of their better hooks.
3. 'Fireflies' by Owl City is a genuinely terrific song that captures precocious, starry-eyed wonderment better than few others in the 2000s.

It is SPECTACULARLY lame, but that's why it works.
Read 177 tweets

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