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#Actually, early presidential primary polls are fairly predictive. 53eig.ht/2PtbSd7
You have to adjust for name recognition, though. Biden, at just south of 30 percent, is still something like a 2:1 underdog. And Bernie's position at 20 percent, as I wrote yesterday, is tenable but not great. 
Per the chart above, Buttigieg's position is roughly as good as Bernie's on a "polls only" basis, or maybe a bit better. Empirically, you'd slightly prefer to be polling at ~10% with low name recognition than ~20% with high name recognition.
