Thread by @PalmerReport

Here's how February 2020 will go:

- Someone will win Iowa and New Hampshire, and it'll tell us nothing, because it never does.

- The media will insist the winners of Iowa and NH are the national frontrunners.

- South Carolina will tell us who's going to be the nominee.

-

Over the past forty years, very rarely have the Democratic and Republican nominees both won Iowa and New Hampshire. It's fun, it's cute, but it's not indicative of what we'll see on Super Tuesday. If you live in Iowa or New Hampshire, don't blame me, it's just the truth.

Why is South Carolina important? It's racially diverse. Black democratic turnout in South Carolina is largely indicative of black democratic turnout on Super Tuesday. Any democrat who performs poorly in South Carolina is basically toast, even if they just won Iowa/New Hampshire.

The polls suggest Biden will win South Carolina in a blowout. If this happens, he'll be the nominee. If Biden struggles in SC, it'll be a wide open race. If Biden loses badly in SC, he's toast.

Everything that happens between now and South Carolina is just noise.

Why does the media pretend Iowa and New Hampshire tell us anything about who's going to be the nominee? There are a lot of cute and fun stories about the voting in those two states, so playing up their importance is good for ratings. Same reason the media does anything, ratings.

Unfortunately, because most people don't know much about how primary politics works, supporters of the Iowa/NH winner think their candidate is on track to be the nominee. Then Super Tuesday goes very differently, and they think it's a sudden conspiracy against their candidate.