Thread by @JuddLegum

1. One thing to remember about the Iowa caucus is that it's not really a contest for votes and delegates.

There are 3,979 pledged delegates to the convention.

Only 41 are at stake tonight.

It's a contest for positive media coverage.

2. One way to generate positive media coverage is to win. If Sanders wins, for example, it will generate positive coverage about the strength of his candidacy.

But another way to win is "beating expectations"

3. Warren's campaign, for example, has been left for dead by most pundits. But she still has a considerable amount of support in most Iowa polls.

A "strong second" could create positive coverage for Warren and help her in New Hampshire and subsequent states

4. To be clear, I think all of this is silly. The media covers Iowa because Iowa is important and Iowa is important because the media covers Iowa.

But it is the reality, to this point.

Bloomberg is betting than he can skip Iowa and others and buy his own positive publicity

5. Candidates that run on electability are particularly vulnerable to a performance in Iowa that does not meet expectations.

Clinton won 15 delegates in Iowa to Obama's 16. But the subsequent coverage generated a wave of negative press that she could never fully overcome

6. Biden hasn't done a great job managing expectations in Iowa. Biden is talking about winning or perhaps finishing second. If that happens, he'll be fine. But a fourth-place finish, which seems at least possible, could be devastating.

7. Biden's (narrow) national lead is predicated on people who have not paid a ton of attention to the race so far. If the first thing they hear tuning in is that Biden's campaign is in a tailspin, it creates a negative feedback loop

8. Ultimately, I think this is what Bloomberg is betting will happen. The he will be the last "moderate" standing and use fear of Sanders/Warren + hundreds of millions in ads to suck up delegates. Seems like a longshot but I think that's his strategy.

9. It's possible that Bernie peaked a week or two too early to fully reap the rewards of winning Iowa. Ideally, his strength would not be fully reflected in polls so he can "exceed expectations."

Now, it seems like he could meet expectations but it would be hard to exceed them

10. OK, enough punditry from me.

The purpose of this thread is just to provide some context for the potential outcomes. We'll see what happens tonight.

I plan on spending most of my time trying to uncover new facts.