Thread by @AriMelber

Iowa's early numbers (62% in) show:

* Sanders currently has the most votes if it were a primary (raw vote)

* Buttigieg currently has the most delegates (after alignment)

* They are in the Top 3 with Warren

* Biden in 4th - Klobuchar behind him by just 2k votes

And with Iowa numbers coming in, a few points on facts, evidence and the potentially long primary season ahead...

One: The systemic shortcomings of the Iowa caucus are *not* about "delays," or "apps."

The valid concerns about democracy, participation and diversity would apply equally to even a well run caucus.

(So if the main problem is a tiny, un-representative state has too much power.. that's true regardless of delays and glitches and debacles.) #Logic

Two: The party's errors may shortchange some candidates and help others -- which partly depends on how much politicos/insiders/press reinforce that -- but that is an issue for the party and those campaigns. (And they can debate reforms, party changes etc)

But for the primary's democracy -- yes let's be substantive and a bit idealistic -- if *delay* is the main tangible difference here, that is not a democracy "debacle."

One state's delegates took longer to count. OK.

Even fair elections can be messy.

The caucus is mad messy (speaking as a former Iowa field organizer)

But that hot mess should not be mistaken for a democracy crisis, or even a rarity

It took 35 days to declare a POTUS winner in 2000

8 months for a U.S. Senate race in 2008..

And the impact?

Today the candidates are campaigning in the next state... just like they would be if results arrived sooner.

And as long as Iowa's final results are valid and ultimately fully released, the thing that really took a hit here is the "expectations game" of part of the political class.

If this year, there's less of an expectations game for an Iowa bounce, okay. America had plenty of elections without that in the first place.

Any rush to crown "front-runners," or announce "momentum" is a subjective political exercise to begin with...

...which applies to us in the media

If *we in the press* declare the IA winner 'matters less' now, cause *we in the press* decide we won't count it as much as we would have last night..

..then ok, that's us forecasting our own approach to expectations.

Or we can not do that.

Instead, we are going to try to focus on reporting the facts in this race -- whether they come in "on time" or not.

Primaries are a race for delegates.

The person with the most delegates wins.

(shoutout John Madden)