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Peak instability

theweichertreport.com/2020/02/17/the…
The flip side of being at peak instability is one is also at peak "can do". This is because your tolerance for risk changes when everything is in flux.
"Come on, you SOBs, do you want to live forever?" Dan Daly, Belleau Wood.
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
If anyone Russia roots for on Twitter is disqualified Putin has an automatic veto over who runs for US president. The real test is in policy. Who increases the defense budget? Who vows to cut it? Who increases energy independence? Who decreases it? Or similar tests.
If this test seems wrong devise another. But "you will know them by their fruits. Do men gather grapes from thornbushes or figs from thistles?"
By applying the "fruits" test you can filter out Russian disinformation and separate the signal from the noise.
Read 4 tweets
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
It is usually bad news for an army when its center collapses. In commercial terms a giant gap in your product lineup appears and people in that segment buy from the competitor because you have no offerings.
The Democratic party can still survive and even prosper but at the risk of becoming a niche player, no longer a full service political provider. It can come to power by allying with a centrist power as some European Green/Left parties do.
How to do this coalition govt in a presidential system, not a parliamentary one, is going to be a problem.
Read 3 tweets
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
Young Democratic primary voters, unlike older Democrats, have markedly positive views of socialism and negative views of capitalism, Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling shows.

wsj.com/livecoverage/n…
The obvious question is: can a heterogeneous group live in the same tent? Possibly if both groups are huddling in fear from the same boogeyman. The real uniter of the Democratic Party is Baba Yaga Donald.
Bloomberg is frankly pitching himself as the only one who can go up against boogeyman. Looking at Sanders he says 'who you go up against him?' To which Bernie replies in the affirmative.
Read 3 tweets

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James Longman
@JamesAALongman
One year after the 'defeat' of ISIS, what of the men & women who joined?

In Syria, I spent time with British woman Shamima Begum & US/Canadian Kimberly Polman. In a tent next-door Hoda Mothana & her son Adam, from the US

Part of an @ABCNewsLive special report to air soon

1/23
You might argue that those who joined ISIS sealed their own fate, and should be left in Syria.

But there are thousands of ISIS fighters, women and children, sitting in camps and prisons in NE Syria. Western countries are doing very little to sort the problem.

2/23
The security implications are huge. In the camps, escapes are thought to take place almost daily. Huge numbers of children are being kept in appalling conditions, and any radicalisation that may have been a problem when ISIS finally fell a year ago, is only deeper now

3/23
Read 23 tweets
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Tanmay Kurtkoti Quants Capital
@Quants_Capital
#Option #Greeks Simplified

#Options are definitely more complicated than equity or futures.

Their prices don’t just go up and down.

They also fluctuate based on things like #time, #implied #volatility and #underlying stock movements.
#Options #Greeks Are Simply Mathematical Shortforms

Most of you would remember from school that mathematical formulas sometimes were #Greek letters like Pi and #Delta. The same is true for options.

Don’t let them overwhelm you or scare you.
They’re simply #mathematical words to explain some very basic principles.

#Greeks Describe the Behavior of #Individual #Options

Each #greek can help predict how it will behave under different circumstances and how options prices would change.
Read 22 tweets
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Coercive Control
@CCCBuryStEd
One of the most effective ways of assessing whether someone has an abusive personality type is to observe their social media interaction over time, particularly how they respond to criticism.There are significant ‘tells’ which indicate a personality type that needs to be avoided.
Obvious behaviour such as trolling, flaming, cyber bullying and cyber harassment are easy *red flags* to watch out for but, even so , are often dismissed as free-speech or banter or seen as less serious because they happen online. BUT online IS IRL (in real life)
There a number of other ‘tells’ which, though less obvious, are often combined with other traits that help build a picture of an online personality. In short: You are not only what you tweet but HOW you tweet it and your online interaction with others plays a significant part.
Read 53 tweets
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Prof Darrel Francis ☺ Mk CardioFellows Great Again
@ProfDFrancis
Risk Ratio, Odds Ratio, Hazard Ratio
========================

2nd and final part of the tweetorial, from ORBITA-HQ!

Fun, easy and informative [*]

#MedEd #FOAMed #cardiology #cardiotwitter
[*] Results may vary and are not guaranteed. See small print.

Not all fears are alike.

* Some fears are one-and-done:
I get a cold which progresses to pneumonia. Will I die, or recover?

* Other things hang over us for much longer, perhaps all your life.
Will you get hit by a bus?
Get a heart attack?
There's no "sell by" date on the fear.
Practice Qs

You are walking through Hyde park, minding your own business.
Hardly causing any trouble at all.
Perhaps the odd humorous tweet.

You get a Direct Message:
"Enough of ur abuse!
You will be hearing form my agent shortly.
kthxbai
AJ Kirtane"

You see the agent:
Read 89 tweets
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Chris Geidner
@chrisgeidner
If you have a copy of a signed White House confidentiality agreement, or have signed one, or have seen one with your own eyes, please be in touch with me. washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump…
In addition to the many ways to be in touch with me, including WhatsApp and Signal, there also is —> tips.buzzfeed.com (info about our @BuzzFeedNews SecureDrop)
From way back during the campaign, here was my and @RosieGray's reporting on the NDA that — of all people — Sam Nunberg signed with Trump: buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/h…
Read 9 tweets

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