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Biden with a very good, post-Nevada poll from PPP in South Carolina to give him some cushion over Sanders in our SC polling average. We're going to get more polls soon, though; reportedly NBC/Marist coming out today or tomorrow. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
Marist has Biden +4 in South Carolina.

So, we've got 3 rather recent South Carolina polls: Marist has Biden +4, YouGov has him +5, and PPP has him +15.

The PPP poll is the only post-Nevada poll of that bunch. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
Overall South Carolina average:

Biden 30.4 (+7.7)
Sanders 22.7
Steyer 12.9
Buttigieg 8.3
Warren 8.2
Klobuchar 4.2

With a debate still to come and Nevada probably not yet fully priced into the polls, this is still a competitive race.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our South Carolina forecast and our primary model overall are FROZEN until tonight or tomorrow AM, once we know the results of the primary. Any polls of Super Tuesday states that come out today will be incorporated once we unfreeze. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
Biden is a heavy favorite in South Carolina, with polls showing a major shift back toward him in the closing days. In the only three fully *post-debate* polls, which also reflect the Clyburn endorsement, he led Sanders by 17, 21 and 28 points.
Some polls from earlier in the week showed a closer race—and some didn't. A lot of polls in the mix in SC have strong house effects, i.e. they tend to consistently be good/bad for certain candidates. e.g. Change Research has a very strong pro-Sanders & anti-Biden house effect.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I still have most of these questions from yesterday about the current state of the polls!

One thing that could resolve some of it though: Biden's numbers seem a bit better and Bernie's maybe a bit worse in polls that contain a larger share of interviews after this week's debate.
Here's an example: Biden is up 7 points (while Sanders is down 1 and Bloomberg down 4) in a post-debate poll of North Carolina vs. in the same poll last week.

mcusercontent.com/259a50ef0a1608…
There aren't a *lot* of polls that have >=50% of their interviews since the debate, but all of the ones that we *do* have are quite good for Biden. Big pro-Biden swings in SC, FL and NC, and his best national poll (21% in SurveyUSA) in a while.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
At a Steyer event at a chicken restaurant in Dorchester County, SC and he comes across as... not an A+ politician but reasonably natural on the stump. It's hard not to think about the contrast to Bloomberg.
Notably sparse applause when he brings up his support for reparations before the older, mostly (maybe 75-80%) white audience.
He also comes across, at least rhetorically, as a bit more of a populist than you'd think, though with plenty of technocratic notes. People assume he's mostly taking his vote from Biden but I'd expect he's also causing some problems for Warren here.
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Nevada is not South Carolina. But I think if you look at the results carefully there, it is at least consistent with the idea that Biden should be a fairly clear favorite in South Carolina
If you model the result in South Carolina, based on the results in Nevada, here's what you get:
Biden 36
Sanders 21
Warren 14
Steyer 11
Buttigieg 10
Klobuchar 7
This is driven by Biden's easy to overlook strength precincts where black voters make up a majority of Democratic voters in Nevada. There aren't many of them, but it's fairly obvious on the map (north side of Las Vegas) and in the data
Read 7 tweets
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Jewhadi™
@JewhadiTM
Biden's South Carolina lead shrinks to single digits as Sanders and Steyer close in: Poll washex.am/2HQcK8E
A new poll released by CBS on Sunday shows Biden's lead narrowing to single digits in South Carolina, falling to 28% while Sanders clocks in at 23%, followed by billionaire Tom Steyer at 18%.
The survey echoes the RealClearPolitics average, which shows growing momentum for the Sanders campaign and declining support for Biden in the state.
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
THREAD 📌📌📌
What a total reframing of what actually happened to try to damage @KamalaHarris.
#Biden raised the issue of segregation.
#Booker---WHO IS BLACK---asked for an apology.
Biden doubled down and claimed Booker should apologize to him.
1/
 usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
This went on over a week before the debate as #Biden's history was revealed by journalists like me.
In the debates Biden lost badly to #Harris when he couldn't address his own record.
Biden's numbers plummeted, Harris's rose.
Then Biden went on CNN to attack Harris.
2/
Chris Cuomo gave #Biden TWO WHOLE SHOWS to attack #Harris with no pushback. Biden claimed he was "blindsided" by Harris, who commented on the issue Biden raised 10days earlier.
Biden revealed all his terrible policy ideas he never talks about & also attacked progressive WOC.
3/
Read 10 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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JMHendersonSr❌
@JMHendersonSr
#biden #working the #erogenous #zones. Yes, your friends at @WebMD have published a helpful guide to these pleasure points on the human body. Here's their take:
"2. The Nape Of The Neck

Though some people might get all Marie Antoinette about having their neck touched, neck kisses are almost always a turn-on, says McCombs. In fact, women ranked the nape of the neck above the breasts and nipples as an erogenous zone, [cont'd]
according to a study published in the journal Cortex. 'It’s such a sexy place because it’s such a vulnerable place,' says McCombs. 'If you combine the lips with the neck, it’s quite a turn-on.'
Read 6 tweets

Trending hashtags

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