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I still have most of these questions from yesterday about the current state of the polls!

One thing that could resolve some of it though: Biden's numbers seem a bit better and Bernie's maybe a bit worse in polls that contain a larger share of interviews after this week's debate.
Here's an example: Biden is up 7 points (while Sanders is down 1 and Bloomberg down 4) in a post-debate poll of North Carolina vs. in the same poll last week.

mcusercontent.com/259a50ef0a1608…
There aren't a *lot* of polls that have >=50% of their interviews since the debate, but all of the ones that we *do* have are quite good for Biden. Big pro-Biden swings in SC, FL and NC, and his best national poll (21% in SurveyUSA) in a while.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Biden and Sanders are now ~tied in our forecast.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
Yes, there are a lot of assumptions here, about Biden's SC bounce and the effect of the Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraws. But I don't think those assumptions are particularly aggressive or Biden-friendly. For instance, it gives him no extra credit for Pete/Klob *endorsing* him.
The only national poll post-SC had just a 3-point Sanders lead, and that was before Buttigieg and Klobuchar quit. Biden has gained a lot in California polls and could limit Sanders's delegate haul. His performance in SC bodes well for how he'll do in the South tomorrow.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It assumes that Pete's support will be divided pretty evenly between the top 4-5 candidates. But getting an extra 1-3% is quite helpful to Warren and Bloomberg, who are very much flirting with 15% in many places. It's somewhat helpful to Biden, who under 15% in some places.
Conversely, Bernie was already at almost 15% almost everywhere. So picking up his share of the Buttigieg vote, and he probably will get his share, doesn't help him as much re: the delegate math.
Of course none of this accounts for the real world context in which Buttigieg dropped out, in which it may be read as a signal by his voters that they should go to Biden. Our model is a simplification and there is likely upside for Biden vs our projections.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Buttigieg dropping out may actually increase the likelihood of a contested convention. He was polling at <15% almost everywhere on Super Tuesday, meaning he was tracking to get very few delegates, but his votes will help other candidates to get over 15% and get delegates.
@chrislhayes OK, so our forecast has been updated with Buttigieg dropping out. The major effect is to help "no majority" at the expense of Sanders for the reason I explained above. ^^

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
@chrislhayes Buttigieg dropping also improved Biden's plurality chances slightly (34% -> 36%) and lowered Bernie's slightly (63% -> 60%). Again, this is mainly because of the effects on the delegate math; more candidates getting to 15% means less chance that Sanders runs up the score on Tues.
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Talia Lavin
@chick_in_kiev
this debate is the most awkward thing ive ever seen and i once saw a video of myself dancing
anyway i love #bernie im sorry
“is anyone concerned about having a democratic socialist at the top of the ticket?”
(very long pause)
bernie: “im not”
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
THREAD 📌📌📌
What a total reframing of what actually happened to try to damage @KamalaHarris.
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This went on over a week before the debate as #Biden's history was revealed by journalists like me.
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
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#Biden has always been a disastrous candidate for women and thus far is performing badly as ever.
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
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#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
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