Thread by @ParadiseTrader3

1) TC has added this screenshot to my first suspicion that all is not going well for the Model Why reservations. This thread will add to TC's screenshot from Freddy as I spent about 30 minutes reading teslamotorsclub right before bed and wish to share what I learned there.

https://twitter.com/TESLAcharts/status/1232847356351172613

2) To begin, I have from time to time, taken screen shots of teslamotorsclub opening page for forums to show what I've been reading as lack of enthusiasm for the Y, certainly none of the fervor the 3 caused with four digit deposits and lines around a delivery center.

3) Here are the statistics for Tesla forums. The first number is posts made, the second number are the amount of comments:

S - 40,773 1,093,796
3 - 29,104 823,748
X - 12,910 269,819
Y - 550 10,764

Cybrtrk - 520 12,416

4) The first Teslike tracker post for Model Y occurred on March 15, 2019. That post has only four pages with 75 replies and 9,788 reviews as of this moment.

teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/te…

5) The teslike tracker spreadsheet for Model Y can be found here, and only 408 Teslans have added their orders to this tracker in almost one-year's time. This is multitudes less than what the well attended Model 3 tracker has and whose numbers are next.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

6) For comparison's sake, the Model 3 tracker has 5,380 entries.

More interestingly, the Model 3 tracker shows 431 orders since Jan 1, 2020.

Model 3 - 431 orders since Jan 1, 2020 (58 days)
Model Y - 408 orders since Mar 15, 2019 (349 days)

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

7) Looking over and comparing the two spreadsheets for the 3 and Y, you can see for yourself that 1,200 people added their configs and (later) VIN numbers for the Model 3 in just June 2018 alone.

Only 72 people added that info for Y in March 2019.

8) So the lack of enthusiasm for the Model Y, which was revealed as a 7 seat SUV, is very apparent by the paucity of posts on Model Y forum on teslamotorsculbs and the small number of posts to the teslike tracker, both of which are almost one-year old.

9) Furthermore, I read a slew of threads in the Model Y forum last night and learned:

* To originally order a Model Y you had to place a $2,500 deposit which is refundable.

* To order one today, you need only $100 reservation fee, which is non-refundable.

10) I can not nail down the date when this changed from a $2,500 deposit (refundable) to a $100 deposit (non-refundable) reservation fee. But when you think of the $100 reservation fees for the CybrTrk and solar roofs, my bet is this took place late in 2019.

11) And when I go back and surf the Model Y tracker, I don't see any burst in reservations on there which showed the change to a $100 reservation fee helped stoke demand.

12) Moreso, there's the usual posts about configurations which don't hold any clues about demand. That is, until Electrek's article last night about changing to a 5 seat config to speed up delivery. That go me thinking I needed to find a thread on email delivery notifications.

13) Here is the thread about email notifications of Model Y deliveries which started this past Monday night and titled "Confirming Delivery Performance Model Y" and it only has 121 replies (many by the same people) and 8,281 views. teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/co…

14) What is noticeable if you read this entire thread (I did) is the following:

* Deliveries will start mid-March 2020

* First people to get notified are AWD and LR configs and black interior

* Earliest deliveries are going everywhere, Texas, Florida, East Coast.

14) And then last night, one or two people who ordered white interiors or RWD reported they got the email too. And then others said they could be bumped up if they reconfigured to a 5 seater from a 7 seater. Still, others are awaiting their emails.

15) The main thing to take away from these 1st performance models (most expensive) being served first is Tesla is not focusing on deliveries to just California to make higher numbers. These Ys are not like the 3's earliest deliveries to Californians to quickly pump the numbers...

16) Tesla is promising deliveries to Texans, Floridians, East Coasters all in mid to late March. What that tells me is there were not enough performance Y orders in California to give the pump sheets a "WOW!" factor, and that Tesla will really have to stretch to speed delivery to

17) the states east of the Continental divide. The Y is definitely NOT the 3 in high demand delivery logistics. To think they are already notifying people with white interiors or SR configs that they are also going to receive their Ys in March tells me my first hunch was right:

18) Tesla is speeding up the Model Y deliveries based on those configs which require less assembly (5 seaters) and which will all require black interiors first, then changing to white interiors and lesser high margin configs, and yet, we're already seeing lower margin orders

19) being told they can get their cars in March too.

Connecting the dots, I am very much expecting the Model Y is not going to be a hit like the Model 3. In fact, when you look over the trackers of both the 3 and Y, more 3s have been reserved this year than Ys.

20) Which makes me laugh out loud, because several Teslans on the Y forum said a sales rep told them 250,000 Ys were backlogged reserved, or, they extrapolate 125,000 Ys will be pushed out in 1H 2020. I don't see it at all.

21) My view: the Model Y is a desperate move to stop the fall off the demand/delivery cliff. Like I said last night, Musk is behind the 8 ball. Demand worldwide is shit. All indications are the Model Y is like a bottle of Coke, left open for a month, the fizz all gone.

22) With Coronavirus playing havoc with Chinese sales and supply lines, with European demand hitting a wall at 120 mph, with America taking deliveries of Ys mid-March as far away as Florida, and with $100 reservation fees for Ys, Cybrtrks, and Solar Roofs the new norm . . .

23) my bet is Tesla is now on the road to where Saturn™ Cars ended up.

Most famous ad tagline: "Saturn . . . a different kind of car company."

Photos and videos of robots building quality cars in cheap labor TN factories.

And Saturn is gone, daddy, gone.

24) I believe Trump will get to see his new wished for"Gone With The Wind". It will be named "Tesla - The Greatest Fraud" and it will happen sooner than I expected after the miracle quarters of Q3 and Q4 2019.

Tesla doesn't have supply constraint.

Demand is gone with the wind