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Uber was asked about ATG at Morgan Stanley this week. Given the massive cash burn in the segment, I think there's legitimate questions about a) why Uber needs to be in this business b) how they have any chance of winning

I was not convinced by Dara's answer and remain skeptical
Note Dara did say: "That said, if any of those competitors want to put their tech on our platform, we would absolutely be open"

In other news, Waymo is considering changing its business model to licensing the driverless technology.
In other other news, driverless technology likely won't make up a material portion of ridesharing trips for well over a decade, but it is a very sexy thing to talk about
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
The risk to the size of the stimulus bill is so asymmetric it’s maddening. Assume it’s 3T or $4T. What’s the risk? After living through this cycle, worrying about a bond market crash or non linear inflation versus mass unemployment and a depression is beyond insane, it’s cruel.
We should be so lucky to have 2.5% inflation and a 2.5-3% 10 year. It would mean things are relatively normalish.

And if you worry about runaway inflation your brain has been eaten by worms. The Fed has very capably proven over the last 40 years they can halt inflation at will.
Core PCE hasn’t been above 2.5% since 1993. What is the risk to going too big? Seriously? If not inflation, what is the risk to a monetary sovereign?

Read 5 tweets
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
This is the most insulting invitation I have ever gotten, especially considering the source
“UBS cordially invites you to what’s going on in super senior structured products for non credit investors”
“Lehman Brothers invites you to what’s going on in repo markets for non credit people”
Read 4 tweets
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
After today, Empirical's valuation spreads are now at levels only hit during the GFC and bear market of 1974. And the speed of widening, 2 standard deviations in 6 weeks, is unprecedented.
The other measure of theirs I pay close attention to is rolling daily correlations. After today, will be at levels only equaled by 87 crash, GFC and Aug 11.
So it wasn't just my moron math that said the price action is similar to 08. Actual quants agree.
Read 3 tweets

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Adam Wagner
@AdamWagner1
Have reflected bit on the Phillips suspension

The problem with Labour is that trust in their disciplinary processes have been so decimated by internal factionalism that the motives of everything they do is rightly questioned - tragically, Labour has lost trust on anti-racism
I find Trevor Phillips to be provocative and sometimes interesting and sometimes quite obviously straying into Liddle-esque polemical use of racist tropes and conspiracy theories. e.g. I find this article pretty gross thesun.co.uk/news/4357747/t…
I think there are legitimate questions about the effects religious conservatism has on children (that's why I am helping out @PNahamu which looks at this in the Jewish community). But also we as a society are still deeply insensitive to anti-muslim bigotry.
Read 8 tweets
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🤷🏻‍♂️
@Khanoisseur
What a contrast Amazon pickup/shipping locations offer to post offices (last post office I visited to ship a package said they stopped giving customers packing tape “because people kept stealing it” and made you buy tape if you needed it): Clean, seamless tech, polite reps…
2. Amazon is the US Postal Service’s largest customer (followed by Fedex and UPS) - with these pickup/drop off locations and its new airhub in Kentucky, Amazon is set to shake up the shipping/logistics industry, which could hurt USPS’ package business.
3. Amazon represents about 25% of USPS’ “competitive products” revenue (distinct from USPS’ “monopoly mail” revenue stream). According to UBS, USPS’ monopoly mail volume has declined 5% between 2016-2017, while competitive products revenue grew 14% over the same period.
Read 12 tweets
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PlainSite
@PlainSite
$TSLA: "A distressed credit and restructuring story." —Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley $MS
$TSLA: "Could there be a worse time to depend on China to sell...robot...cars?" —Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley $MS
$TSLA: "No one really cares about debt; no one cares about the CDS—as long as you're growing. When you... When the... When questions are calling into your growth these numbers start to...start to be noticed. [Sigh]." —Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley $MS
Read 14 tweets
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Cathie Wood
@CathieDWood
.@ARKInvest would like to compare notes with Adam Jonas and his team at Morgan Stanley on their concern about EV demand. The concern should be about gas-powered cars. EVs are growing nicely.
Based on original research (which seems rare on the Street these days), the total cost of ownership (TCO) of a $TSLA’s Model 3 is lower than that of the average gas powered vehicle, as shown in ARK’s Sunday newsletter above.
As the average price of an EV moves toward and drops below that of gas powered cars in the next few years, EV demand growth should transition from strong to explosive.
Read 5 tweets
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Christopher Steele fake PSS
@SergeiMillian
Now, as “Russiagate” is over and feeling totally exonerated by the recent report, let the inquisitive minds find the truth about the “#Pissgate” creators, a lovely couple, GS/CS, who organized the smear campaign against the #President, #Millian, the team or are they #untouchable?
Read 74 tweets
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Judd Legum
@JuddLegum
1. Congrats!

You just helped buy the most expensive home in America.

Oh, you don't know what I'm talking about?

Let me explain.

goo.gl/3D1Qqs
2. The record-setting new home is a 24,000 square foot penthouse in Manhattan

The purchase price was $238 million.

It was bought by hedge fund owner Ken Griffin

But he couldn't have done it without you!

goo.gl/3D1Qqs
3. In 2008, Griffin's hedge fund was on the brink. His fund lost 55% of its value.

CNBC was parked outside its office so it could be first with the news that the firm went under.

But then you, the taxpayer, stepped into save Griffin's hedge fund

popular.info/p/you-helped-b…
Read 8 tweets

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