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Amazing how many journalists have written "I don't understand why the tests were delayed, I don't understand statistics, couldn't tell you the difference between False Positive and One Direction but can tell you went you should freak out about US testing." Seriously bad stuff
Before journalists or other people start firebombing me, check it the Korean test. Do you consider a medical test with 60-70% accuracy, only a little better than a couple flip valuable? You'd be writing the complete opposite when all those false positives came back. Facts matter
Imagine if we started testing mass numbers of people up to a random number generator? Would that make you feel better? That's basically what you guys are saying is the solution. Good grief
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Masked Mao Balding 大老板
@BaldingsWorld
So since everyone on Twitter would be able to better handle coronavirus than everyone around the world let's try and set what we know about corona virus and potential policy responses under actual knowledge and constraints shall we rather than your fantasy world. Let's go 1/n
Back on February 4th, more than a month ago, the FDA fast tracked coronavirus testing issuing an emergency decree allowing public health labs around the country to assist in detection wired.com/story/the-us-f…
Problem solved right? Wrong. Why? Tests for reasons that are still unclear, and this has proven true in other countries but seems to be improving, proved to be very inaccurate typically less than a coin flip bbc.com/news/health-51…
Read 10 tweets
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Masked Mao Balding 大老板
@BaldingsWorld
One of my favorite ideas in economics that is so rarely talked about and definitely not in the public consciousness is dead weight loss. Dead weight loss is the concept that when the government imposes a policy whether taxation or mandating behavior, people are not free 1/n
To pursue their preferred outcomes or behavior and almost always results in lower utility and efficiency. Simple way to think of, assume a tax is imposed that raises $1 but people work fewer hours. We do not directly observe the fewer hours worked but we observe the $1 raised 2/n
Most of the time, not always, economists find that the dead weight loss outweighs the policy imposition. This is why to me I have a high hurdle on government action to impose something. We also see this in natural phenomenon. Recent research found that when Japan turned 3/n
Read 6 tweets
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Masked Mao Balding 大老板
@BaldingsWorld
One question I get is why I am as a China hawk forgiving of deals like allowing China entry into the WTO and similar type of deals? A few specific reasons. First, based upon known information at the time, I think the deals were made in good faith on both sides. 1/n
Rephrased: US had good reason to believe China would under take broad reforms to make itself a more responsible and mainline international partner country. China enacted significant broad reforms in many areas. To use a simple dividing line, through 2008, there was progress 2/n
Second, and building upon point #1, you cannot predict the future in anything so you have to use best available evidence. In 2000, they could not have predicted Xi in 2012. It's very easy with 20 years hindsight to tell people what they should have done. That's not fair 3/n
Read 7 tweets

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c-lightning, commits of
@clightningcomit
it’s 2020, let’s start the new year with a long thread:
one like = one fact about or feature of c-lightning dev (max 100)
1/ a handy way to see all the configuration options for c-lightning is by running `lightningd --help`
2/ for all the available commands, try `lightning-cli help`
Read 110 tweets
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Andrew
@BonifaceOption
Decided to change up my Bible reading plans for 2020.

Had been doing One Year Bible but it is far too easy to fall behind. I am going to read one chapter a day (a couple times throughout the day) and post about it on this thread. You can join me if you like.
Genesis 1.

I could dwell on this chapter for a month. Bible is a cumulative book. Everything built on top of previous foundations. This chapter is the foundation of foundations. All the symbolism, types, patterns, etc. are found here.
The entire symbolic universe of the Bible is built in Genesis 1.

God could have described all the mysteries of physics, biology, etc.

He described the details (firmament, sea creatures, winged birds, things that creep, birds) of how he made the world exactly as He intended.
Read 439 tweets
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O
@adroitmedic
I'll be sharing a few IELTS (Academic) tips in this thread from my personal experience and I hope it helps someone. Feel free to add yours. I wrote IELTS twice and the lowest I scored in any of the bands in both was 7 which in writing, and got an overall band of 8 both times.
In my opinion the listening and reading are easiest to pass as they are objective in nature and have a straightforward marking scheme. You can decipher how well you'll perform in the examination for these aspects from your performance in practice tests.
The speaking and writing parts are more subjective.
I'll start with Listening:
The listening part tests your ability to get information to follow a conversation or narrative and answer questions based on that.
Read 28 tweets
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Raksha Kumar
@Raksha_Kumar
A thread of all my pieces in 2019. Will add to this throughout the year. My focus on land rights and media freedoms continue. Watch out for a series on women's land rights later in the year. Also, a series of stories on Hindu fundamentalism.
A look at journalists' safety in 2018. Most murders of #journalists are underreported. Simple fact is that we dont know how many journalists are being killed in the line of duty every day in India.
CC: @pressfreedom @IFJGlobal @pen_int
truthdig.com/articles/the-l…
Women have known for ages that their battle against patriarchy will be sustained, slow, and often disappointing. This is the story of 3,500,000 women of Kerala who began the year with some hope.
sojo.net/articles/women…
Read 10 tweets
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Holly Stallcup
@HollyStallcup
One of the most painful fears that comes for me out of the ongoing crisis at Willow Creek is the fear that other churches will respond in ways that punish women leaders.
People will say, "See this is why we need the Billy Graham rule" and women will continue to be the ones pushed to the margins of church leadership.
In fear we will act in extreme black & white ways instead of seeking the Spirit & reacting in proactive nuanced ways. Extreme actions rarely serve us well & almost always hurt the marginalized the most.
Read 6 tweets

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