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Also, what to think about Michigan, where the polls show Biden ahead by 23 points, about the same margin that Clinton led Sanders by in 2016 (before Sanders won!)?

Here's one way to look at it:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/michi…
Our demographic model, which is calibrated off of actual results, polls from other states, and national polls, shows Biden up by 23 points in Michigan, which is exactly what the polling average shows.
Keep in mind that Biden is ahead by 17-20 nationally. So expecting a margin somewhere in that range might be the default. And MI looks like an average to above-average state for him. In contrast to Clinton in 2016, he's done well in places with lots of working-class white voters.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This is great news. I don't know exactly which hospitals are most in need, but my understanding is NYC and Seattle hospitals are in acute danger. If you're a hospital with a ventilator shortage or someone in a position to compile a list, please let @elonmusk and me know here.
I know @andrewcuomo needs a lot of ventilators in New York.

news.yahoo.com/cuomo-highligh…
(Or that's @NYGovCuomo, I suppose.)
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our delegate guesstimates (based on results as reported as of this morning):

Biden 1237
Sanders 937
Warren 63
Bloomberg 49
Buttigieg 18
Klobuchar 5
Gabbard 2

58% of delegates (2311 of 3979) have been awarded based on contests so far.
Sanders would need 63% the remaining delegates to claim a majority, which is roughly equivalent to winning the remaining contests by ~25 points.

Biden would need 45% of remaining delegates for a majority, equivalent to *losing* remaining contests by ~10 points.
At an equivalent point in the 2016 race (after WI when 59% of delegates were awarded) Sanders needed 58% of remaining delegates for a pledged-delegate majority. So this is a steeper climb. Also, he trailed Clinton by 10 points in national polls then but trails Biden by 19 now.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Not the last time I'm gonna have to say this:

The very sharp increases in COVID-19 positives in the United States are inevitable given that testing is substantially increasing. And we want testing to increase. We are finally catching cases that we needed to catch 10 days ago.
Today, for example, @COVID19Tracking recorded 20,045 new tests, of which 1985 (9.9%) were positive. One week ago, by contrast (Wednesday 3/11) there were only 2446 tests, of which 275 (11.2%) were positive.
The @COVID19Tracking data is not comprehensive and there are ups-and-downs from day to day and other quirks (some states don't report negatives). But you won't serve yourself well by freaking out whenever the numbers go up because they're gonna go way way up as we get more tests.
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Shannon Dingle
@ShannonDingle
Ten years ago today, The Lancet retracted Andrew Wakefield’s fraudulent 1998 article claiming the MMR vaccine caused autism. He performed procedures on children unethically, paid kids at a birthday party to give him blood samples, and doctored data.

He still claims he was right.
The study involved 12 children. Without approval from medical ethics boards, Wakefield did lumbar punctures, colonoscopies, and other tests on the children, in violation of rules against unnecessary medical procedures on children.

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Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
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Ari Paul
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One of the reasons I first got into bitcoin was because of the massive central bank money printing in 2009-2010, I figured that we had a few years of deflation ahead first, but then I'd eventually want to get the heck out of fiat. With Trump's recent pressure on the Fed,
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Kate Hammer #StopBrexit2018 #SpeedofCourage #WATON
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Here @BylineFest @peterjukes introduces @DamianCollins with @carolecadwalla - findings that Electoral Law was broken
Peter reminds us 🇬🇧 has no mueller investigation. The closest we have is @CommonsCMS #FakeNewsInquiry - #hybridwarfare

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