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Our delegate guesstimates (based on results as reported as of this morning):

Biden 1237
Sanders 937
Warren 63
Bloomberg 49
Buttigieg 18
Klobuchar 5
Gabbard 2

58% of delegates (2311 of 3979) have been awarded based on contests so far.
Sanders would need 63% the remaining delegates to claim a majority, which is roughly equivalent to winning the remaining contests by ~25 points.

Biden would need 45% of remaining delegates for a majority, equivalent to *losing* remaining contests by ~10 points.
At an equivalent point in the 2016 race (after WI when 59% of delegates were awarded) Sanders needed 58% of remaining delegates for a pledged-delegate majority. So this is a steeper climb. Also, he trailed Clinton by 10 points in national polls then but trails Biden by 19 now.
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More from @NateSilver538 see all

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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The most important COVID-19 metric right now is hospitalizations. Why?

1) Not affected as much by how many tests are conducted 2) Directly reflects strain on the medical system
3) Directly reflects number of severe cases that could result in death
More states are reporting hospitalization numbers now, although frustratingly NY did not update its count today. For states reporting them, they seem to be increasing at a rate of around 20% per day. covidtracking.com/data/
That's probably a decent indication of how fast COVID-19 is spreading right now*. Better than the # of positives, which partly reflects the rapid ↑↑ in testing.

* More precisely, how fast it was spreading 7-10 days ago, since there's a lag between infection & hospitalization.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I'm not sure it's useful to look at the US coronavirus numbers as a whole. For now, it's probably best to think about four regions:

1) NYC metro
2) Washington state
3) California
4) Everywhere else

NYC metro is quite scary. They're doing a LOT of testing but even so, the number of positives as a share of tests remains quite high. Also, a LOT of hospitalizations and lots of credible reports of strain building on the medical system.
Washington state is the most encouraging, conversely. They've done a lot of testing, the data is good, and the curve is fairly flat. Makes sense given that formal and informal social distancing policies went into place sooner there than elsewhere.
Read 5 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Maybe worth re-emphasizing: there are a lot of uncertainties in the long-term coronavirus outlook. The column below has a good overview of them. But the correct policy responses *for right now* are pretty robust to those uncertainties. nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opi…
(The responses include: substantially increase social distancing, substantially increase hospital capacity, substantially increase testing, do as much as you can to stabilize the economy so temporary problems don't become permanent ones, and crash on finding treatments/vaccines.)
As you go further out in time, uncertainties increase. In terms of social distancing, the correct attitude for governments may be like:

"We NEED to do this AGGRESSIVELY for 2-3 weeks. Then revaluate. But it could be 2-3 months, or off-and-on in waves for 18 months. It depends."
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Jill Piggott
@JillPiggott
Email to #Bernie shows campaign's pollster predicted he was within 4 points of #Biden in South Carolina. 2 days later, Biden blew out SC by nearly 30 points, turning the race around.

How Sanders' run came undone: thread int.nyt.com/data/documenth…
In Jan, @ZephyrTeachout, a law prof allied w/ #Sanders, wrote an op-ed alleging #Biden had “a big corruption problem," & the campaign sent it to everyone on its large email list.

✔️ #Sanders "put a stop to it. 'It is absolutely not my view that Joe is corrupt in any way.'"
In Feb, VT Rep @PeterWelch implored #Sanders to "ease up" on his attacks of #democrats. Welch believed it "sounded exclusionary to ordinary people backing other candidates, ... a lot of voters who are just everyday voters, who decided to vote for other #Dems" (NYT 3/21).
Read 18 tweets
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TheValuesVoter
@TheValuesVoter
Something for #IowaCaucus voters to consider:

Trump won in 2016 b/c he won 6 states Obama/Biden had won twice:
- Florida (29 electoral votes)
- Pennsylvania (20)
- Ohio (18)
- Michigan (16)
- Wisconsin (11)
- Iowa (6)

So, how do the Dem candidates poll against Trump here?
If you look at the General Election polls on FiveThirtyEight.com, you can look at the polls that compare various Democratic candidates against Trump in various states.

I checked the polls for the Dems against Trump over the last 3 months.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/?ex_cid=…
If you sum up the polls over the past 3 months and count how many times each candidate beats Trump versus loses to him in polls in these 6 key states, you find:

- Biden beats Trump more often than not in FL, PA, MI and WI.
- Sanders beats Trump more often than not in MI only.
Read 16 tweets
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth
@VABVOX
In data from @FiveThirtyEight and GDELT tracking, #Biden is leading TV mentions. This is pushing down poll numbers for other candidates.

Biden - 4,317
Sanders - 461
Warren - 1,090
Harris - 146
Buttigieg - 88
O'Rourke - 118
Booker - 142
Klobuchar - 47
Yang - 41
Castro - 21
These numbers should embarrass the MSM. #Harris is polling 4th yet she has less than 2% of #Biden's mentions, only 10% of #Warren's. #Buttigieg is polling right behind Harris and he has only half her mentions. Yet #Booker is almost equal to Harris. While #Castro--almost nothing.
The week showed a big drop in mentions for #Harris and #Sanders, despite high profile appearances for both on major TV shows. The disconnect is striking, particularly since both have rolled out new policy and important changes in their campaigns.
Read 6 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
#KamalaHarris's support is almost evenly split between women and men. The same is true of her support from voters with and without college degrees. Her support from black voters is equal to Biden's and support from Latinx is higher.
via @MorningConsult
#LizWarren's main support is from women at 60%. Warren's support from voters over and under 45 is almost evenly split, unlike any other top four candidate. And she has nearly equal support among college and no college voters.

via @MorningConsult
The evenness of @KamalaHarris's polling between women and men and voters of color and white voters versus the other top four candidates is significant and bolsters her electability argument.

via @MorningConsult
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets

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