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Was studying some historical falls to draw some meaningful patterns if any, let's take 2000 dotcom crash...Nifty fell from highs of ~1800 to nearly ~850 i.e. 50%+ down...and initial falls were not as severe as currently what we are witnessing + it had multiple pullbacks (1/n)
(2/n) RSI gave multiple oversold signals, infact premature and after each signal it kept falling 15-20% more...again with multiple tiny pullbacks...again note that to breakeven 50% fall you need 100% upmove....200 WMA were meaningfully broken..now let's take example of 2008
(3/n) In 2008, from highs of ~6250 nifty fell to ~2250, almost 60%+ fall...again with multiple pullbacks & some really sharp moves at the end of fall...again RSI near oversold zone multiple times..200 WMA broken meaningfully..remember to recover 60% fall you need ~3x to breakeven
(4/n) So far intensity of current fall is extreme and comparable to these corrections, but we haven't yet seen any pullbacks (which is sign of worry potentially)....at the same time if we are comparing this with 2000 n 2008, we have just scratched the surface....
(5/n) Whether we should compare with such recession-like scenario (nobody knows), but what we can do is prepare for worse and adapt our strategies.....preserve capital meaningfully and make best of these corrections....as opportunity for future...!! Thoughts welcome...!!
(6/n) As many of us know, such sharp falls might be due to algos and world being much more connected and dependable now than ever...so that's new challenge of not so perfect precedent, but fundamentally somewhere human element will come n show patterns....let's wait n watch...!!
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