Thread by @billmiston

On my way in, I decided to spin by my local places in @Walkers_Point, and they were packed as they normally would be on a Sunday. Across the country, mixed messaging isn't helping matters, but to me it's simple: Just stay home. propublica.org/article/no-mat…

I know, it's hard. It's sunny out and you want to support the businesses where you live, and be with others. But by doing more, now, we can lessen the impact later. #flatteningthecurve hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/13/wha…

Case in point, from @Reuters. In South Korea, hundreds of new coronavirus cases were announced in just days, centering around two main clusters: a church and a hospital, and one patient. graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-S…

It’s not clear where they became infected, but in the days before they traveled to crowded spots, involved in minor traffic crash and went to a hospital. While there she attended two church services. In that time, doctors suggested she be tested...

graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-S…

She had a high fever.

"Instead, the woman went to a buffet lunch with a friend at a hotel. In an interview with local newspaper...the woman denied that doctors had advised her to be tested. As her symptoms worsened, however, doctors say they once again advised her to be tested."

By the time she was tested on February 17, at another hospital, authorities announced she was the country’s 31st case. In only a matter of days, the numbers of infections soared as hundreds of people at the church and surrounding areas tested positive. graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-S…

"Authorities are still investigating how Patient 31 contracted the virus, having no recent record of overseas travel or earlier known contact with other confirmed cases." graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-S…

"Well, what about testing?"

Yes. However, the US is not at the testing capacity that we're seeing in South Korea.

This is from last month, but still useful: washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02…

Positive cases across the country have grown by day.

washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/…

The so-called 'exponential curve' has experts worried: cases continue to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases in the United States by May, per @washingtonpost

washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/…

"That is math, not prophecy."

Experts say spread can be slowed if people practice social distancing, avoiding public spaces & limiting movement.

"Still, without any measures to slow it down, COVID-19 will continue to spread exponentially for months."

washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/…

"Well, I don't feel ill..."

"Of the 634 confirmed...cases aboard the ship off of the coast of Japan last month, 328 showed no symptoms when they were first tested, the study said...

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

When researchers adjusted the model accounting for those who likely later developed symptoms, 18% were asymptomatic.

The study...adds to the growing evidence suggesting a significant portion of people infected show no symptoms. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Here is a link to that study:

eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…

First paragraph, first line from @HarvardHealth's COVID-19 basics:

"Some people infected with the virus have no symptoms. When the virus does cause symptoms, common ones include low-grade fever, body aches, coughing, nasal congestion, runny nose, and sore throat."

If that was the shot, here's your chaser:

"The coronavirus is thought to spread mainly from person to person. This can happen between people who are in close contact with one another...

...Coronavirus can also spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects."

@NEJM: "The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill or even presymptomatic." nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

.@NEJM: "That means Covid-19 will be much harder to contain than (previous coronavirus outbreaks MERS or SARS), which were spread much less efficiently and only by symptomatic people. In fact, Covid-19 has already caused 10 times as many cases as SARS in a quarter of the time."

Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb: "We're past the point of believing that we can prevent epidemic spread. Now the goal is to have a limited epidemic and reduce the scope and severity of it, and that's still possible." usatoday.com/story/opinion/…

“Well, IDGAF...”

You might be a person who has the benefit of being able to work from home, or aren’t impacted like those who work in the service industry (grocery store, pharmacy) or as a public servant (garbage man, fire fighter/EMT, police officer, doctor/nurse, health lab).

But some don’t have that option.

If they fall ill because one person didn’t do everything in their capacity to limit their interaction with others (if asymptomatic), who will that person turn to when their mother/father, friend/loved ones can’t get the services they need?

TL;DR: If you can, stay home. Protect others’ lives and livelihoods by preventing community spread.

If so, Sunday Fundays will return sooner than later.

Have to go...another press conference about new cases is about to start.