'We find prediction really hard, but we find explanation fairly easy.'
We tell stories to ourselves and others to paper over our poor predictions."
Mauboussin/Callahan
morganstanley.com/im/publication…
"Researchers showed pathologists, experts who study body tissue to identify disease, the same biopsy slides at two different times. The average correlation between their overall judgments of disease was 0.63."
See generally expectationsinvesting.com