Thursday Morning Update: Last night the Senate passed the stimulus bill, and the House is likely to vote on the bill Friday. We finally got a full look at the bill, and needless to say it's not perfect. But honestly, no bill is perfect. 1/
If you're looking to be frustrated, no matter who you are, you'll find frustration in the bill. One of the more controversial points in the bill, one that nearly held it up, is the enhanced unemployment provision which adds $600/wk on top of regular unemployment for 4 months. 2/
There are three reasons why this VERY aggressive stimulus doesn't bother me. First, not everyone losing their job is on the low end of the income scale. Sure, some lower income folks will get a "raise" but many people filing will still take a pay cut, despite the $600/wk bump. 3/
Next, many of these people are already unemployed and have yet to receive benefits. Thus they're already in the red. The enhancement can help repair what is already greatly damaged. The $600/wk won't be here for awhile. 4/
And then there's the qualm about the length of the benefit and it dissuading people from wanting to work. We're headed toward record unemployment. The lack of jobs will be the problem, not motivation. It will take at least 4 months for employment numbers to improve. 5/
Speaking of jobless numbers. Prepare yourself mentally for 8:30a EST this morning, as last week's jobless claims are released. They will be some of the first quantitative data we receive about the cluster we're in. So far, everything else has been a prediction. 6/
Prior to this chaos, weekly jobless claims were about 220k. Don't be surprised if today's number is somewhere between 2-4 million. The market is poised to have a rough day today, and the jobless claims numbers are part of the reason why. 7/
The market has been up for two days in a row, the first time since February. This feels nice, but I think it's a short term apparition. Yes, much of the shock of our reality has worn-off, but you, me, and the market will still occasionally freak-out. 8/
A couple other random notes. In regards to stimulus checks, if the IRS has your bank account # for direct deposit from previous tax filings, your stimulus "check" will be deposited into it in the next 4-6 weeks. 9/
If they don't have your bank info, your check will arrive in 4 months. This is an awful reality, which primarily affects the unbanked. Roughly 25 million adults don't have bank accts in America, including approx 16% of Black households and 14% of Hispanic households (2018). 10/
The stimulus bill can't be perfect, and it certainly isn't trying to marginalize the marginalized, but it will. Transparently, this is very upsetting to me, because it could actually widen the income and wealth gaps. 11/
I know the stimulus check has become the manifestation of many people's hope, and if you happen to be in that camp, frankly, I think you should legitimately try and find a new cure to focus on. The payments won't be here for awhile, and you need money now. 12/
File for unemployment, if you aren't working, and then be prepared to tap credit sources to bridge the gap. The stimulus payment will be a modest one-time injection. Don't wait for it to save you, because it won't due to magnitude and timing. 13/
You're six days out from rent/mortgage being due. If necessary, and you haven't already, have a respectful conversation with your landlord/bank about your inability to pay on time. Be honest and understanding of their perspective too. You both want the same thing. 14/
There will be a ton of ups and downs over the next four weeks. Stay focused, talk about your stresses with your loved-ones, and cut spending immediately. When our economy comes roaring-back, you need to be ready to give it fuel. 15/15
