SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN KASHMIR
So far, J&K UT administration has confirmed 27 COVID-19 positive cases in Jammu and Kashmir. Out of these, 21 are from Kashmir valley alone while six are from Jammu. One of these patients from Kashmir valley has recovered.
So far, J&K UT administration has confirmed 27 COVID-19 positive cases in Jammu and Kashmir. Out of these, 21 are from Kashmir valley alone while six are from Jammu. One of these patients from Kashmir valley has recovered.
Unfortunately, a 65-year-old patient couldn’t make it – the person from Hyderpora, Srinagar. In at least 12 cases (10 in Kashmir, 2 in Jammu) the direct/indirect contact is the now deceased patient, who breathed his last on March 26 at Srinagar’s Chest Disease Hospital.
In other words, a single case is the reason behind around 48% (10/21) of total COVID-19 cases in Kashmir and 44% (12/27) of overall COVID-19 positive cases in J&K. The point to be noted is that the deceased patient had a travel history of outside J&K and NOT any foreign country.
Only 5 out of total 21 cases in Kashmir have a travel history outside India. While 4 of them had visited Saudi Arabia, one had been to Indonesia. Until now, these patients are primary source of contact for at least 2 cases – the grandchildren of Saudi-returned man from Natipora.
On the contrary, those patients with travel history outside J&K is 6 but their contact with others and among themselves accounts for total 14 out of total 21 cases. Out of these 6 individuals, one patient (now deceased) was the primary source of contact for at least 8 cases.
Which brings to the point that in all of the positive cases from Kashmir, the virus spread has been largely driven by those coming from outside J&K and NOT any particular foreign country. For example, the deceased patient from Srinagar had visited several states like Delhi & UP.
Since 18th March, the day when first COVID-19 positive case was detected in Srinagar, the valley has seen a jump in the number of COVID-19 positive cases. In last ten days, with an average of 2 new cases per day, the number has risen from 1 to 21 cases.
When J&K witnessed its first COVID-19 positive case, the rest of India had already seen 169 COVID-19 positive cases from many states including Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Thousands of Kashmiris live, study and work in these states.
Yet, the government didn’t deem it right to put all the visitors entering J&K into mandatory quarantine to prevent the spread of virus. Why?
This is in total contradiction with what the UT administration did with those travelling to Kashmir from Ladakh. On March 18, District Magistrate Srinagar ordered restriction on the entry of travellers from Ladakh into Srinagar.
The order stated that only those travellers can enter Srinagar who are ready to undergone quarantine for the specified two-week period. For the record, Ladakh UT, at that time, had eight COVID-19 positive cases.
A day earlier, authorities had sent 81 passengers who had arrived from Ladakh into quarantine for two weeks in Srinagar. There were 25 passengers on the flight who didn’t agree to undergo quarantining. They were sent back to Ladakh by the authorities in the same flight!
Why didn’t the government treat the rest of entrants into Kashmir the same way? If a traveler from a region with reported cases of COVID-19 had to undergo a mandatory quarantine, why didn’t the same logic apply to those entering J&K from the rest of the country other than Ladakh?
On March 23, J&K government ordered closure of all inter-state borders with HP, Punjab and Ladakh. A day later, all the domestic flights were suspended across India. Did the J&K government act too late in shutting down flights in the union territory and sealing off its borders?
The orders to seal UT’s borders and quarantine all entrants in Kathua came on March 24 – six days after the first COVID-19 positive case was reported in Kashmir. By then, the number of COVID-19 positive patients had gone up to 8.
Why didn’t the government show same level of proactiveness vis-à-vis those with travel history outside J&K as it showed towards those returning from countries like Bangladesh and other affected countries?
It’s clear that J&K UT administration assumed that novel coronavirus can enter Kashmir ONLY through those who had travelled outside India. But the reality, as the analysis above shows, is different.
Now, we must focus all of our efforts on breaking the chain. But that shouldn’t blind our eyes to the question of who allowed it to become a chain in the first place! Therefore, next time you tweet, instead of PR-laden tweets extolling your normal work, we expect some answers
