Thread by @DrDenaGrayson

⚠️@Harvard study projects recurrent wintertime #COVID19 outbreaks: “Intermittent #PhysicalDistancing may be required *into 2022* unless ICU capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.”

#coronavirus #CoronavirusPandemic
nymag.com/intelligencer/…

The #COVID19 projections are based on estimates of seasonality (worse in winter), ability to gain long-term immunity to this deadly #coronavirus (NOT likely based on other related viruses), and cross-immunity to related coronaviruses (could provide partial immunity!).

▶️Highly-effective distancing allows a strategy using #coronavirus TESTING, contact tracing and quarantine, as in #SouthKorea and #Singapore
▶️Less effective 1-time distancing may PROLONG the outbreak

But @realDonaldTrump *still* hasn’t provided the #COVID19 tests he promised.🤬

In the absence of effective #coronavirus treatments or a vaccine, this study predicts a “catastrophic burden on the healthcare system...if distancing is poorly effective and/or not sustained for long enough.”

As I’ve warned for MONTHS.

@ScienceMagazine
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…

▶️This deadly #coronavirus is here to stay
▶️Unfortunately, long-term immunity isn’t unlikely (based on other coronaviruses), but partial immunity from other related viruses could decrease risk
▶️Widespread #COVID19 testing/contact tracing/quarantines are CRITICAL to reopening