Thread by @NashSGC

Some thoughts on #Brexit & an extension to the transition period.

(Note - This is not an argument against extending, I think an extension is essential, but an explanation as to why I think as an extension does not, at least today, look likely. Tomorrow is another day)

There is a growing belief that an extension to the #Brexit transition is almost inevitable. I wld like to believe that that is the case, but think we are still a long way from an extension being requested, let alone agreed.

Some note that within govt. (& #EU), #Covid19 response trumps everything, with personnel being moved and all other priority work paused. Yes, civil servants in UK are being repurposed to work on #Covid19, but not those negotiating with the #EU.

If there is a bandwidth issue, it is at the political level (it is hard for Cabinet to deal with anything other than #Covid19 at the moment), but with mandates having been agreed, & negotiations still embryonic, there’s little political input needed at this stage.

This will lead some senior members of govt. to believe that they won’t need to get their heads back into #Brexit until later in the yr when, they hope, the #Covid19 crisis will be under control. This is a pretty big gamble, but one that some are, I suspect, will to make.

There is also a serious bandwidth issue for interested stakeholders & esp. business. These want to fully support the negotiations to getting the best possible outcome. They simply cannot do that while dealing with the #COVID19 crisis.

Taking forward negotiations when your most important and informed stakeholders cannot provide 110% support shld cause govt. to pause for thought, but whether or not it will remains unclear.

It is also suggested that, with some post #Brexit benefits delayed (e.g. #trade deal with the US, negotiations for which having already been postponed), the UK will be more inclined to request an extension.

But the primary #Brexit benefit in the minds of govt. is complete UK sovereignty (as explained by David Frost in his lecture earlier in the yr). Securing this is delayed by an extension. Failing to agree a deal, conversely, delivers that objective.

And while, a bad deal, or no deal comes with (in my view) dire econ. consequences, govt. don’t share this view.

They believe the costs are small, & outweighed by the freedom to regulate free of any outside interference. Sovereignty trumps econ. cost.

Add to this that agreeing an extension exposes the PM to a potential Parl. rebellion, as the #EU (Withdrawl Agreement) Act 2020, prohibits govt from agreeing any extension.

If govt. wants to extend, it must amend the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020, via primary legislation with all the Parl arguments & risks that come with that.

Does the PM believe that a deal with the #EU is so important that it merits reopening a rift within the party? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Given all this, it doesn’t seem to me that an extension is inevitable. It wld be if govt. believed it absolutely had to get a deal with the #EU, & was willing to pick a fight with its backbench, but it doesn’t and isn’t, at least not today.

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