Thread by @NashSGC

This is a core part of the Brexiteer playbook - portray #Ireland as the problem & encourage other Member States to force them to move. The problem for them is that this isn’t how the #EU works. #Brexit

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1179804006605979648

Any belief that this will work is based on three false assumptions:

1. That there is an appetite amongst big Member States to bully a smaller Member to cast aside its red lines to help an exiting member get out of a domestic political bind.

#Brexit

2. That large Member State’s red lines (read Germany) are not the same as, or at least compatible with, Ireland’s.

3. That the EU will panic if no-deal looks like a genuine possibility.

I’ve seen no evidence to suggest that any other these assumptions are correct. #Brexit

Germany, France & the other Member States have been consistent in aligninging themselves with Ireland and prioritising solidarity. Just like the ERG have said that if the DUP are happy, we are happy, the EU have said that if Ireland are happy, they are happy. #Brexit

As hard as it might be to imagine for some, the other Member States, inc the largest, will be lead by Ireland on the issue of the border, not telling Ireland what to do. #Brexit

This has already been demonstrated throughout the negotiations, including way back in 2016 when the EU adopted Ireland’s negotiating objectives as its own. #Brexit

As for the EU panicking in the face of no-deal, they have, until now, been much more expert at running the clock down and using the pressure of time to get concessions than the UK. #Brexit

This isn’t to say that that will always be the case, but with the EU (Withdrawal) No. 2 Act in place, & no real evidence that their is a maj. in Parl for govt proposal (not to mention any EU counter proposal), I can’t see why EU wld crumble now when it hasn’t previously. #Brexit

This strategy of “go to the Member States...isolate Ireland...get Berlin to force a change of approach” has always been based on a misreading of the EU & misunderstanding of how the Member States are operating, collectively, in this negotiation. #Brexit