Q1: I have been hearing about CT scans as possibly being better at testing for #COVID19 than the current swab test. Is this true?
A1: It’s a bit more complicated. Experts believe that the false negative rate can be around 30% with the swab test due to improper sample collection.
CT scans check ”ground glass” opacities in the lungs, which are common to several diseases (pneumonia, for example). While there could be false positives, clinicians say that the chance of this decreases once out of flu season. In other words, it could be a more specific test.
Q2: So does that mean CT scans should be promoted to test #Covid_19 patients?
A2: Certainly decreasing the false negative rate is important in clinical treatment of #coronavirus. However, identifying cases at scale is as well...
CT scans are a resource intensive method to #test individuals. CT scans cost roughly $200-$250 per scan and so are not economical at the scales required. Lower cost methods like contact tracing or expanding swab tests can work well if scaled.
1/ Q: Has almost everyone been infected with COVID by now?
A: Recent estimates suggest around 58% of the population in the US and over 70% in England have been previously infected, with BIG increases during the Omicron wave.
3/ ➡️ During the Omicron wave from December 2021-February 2022, this estimate increased from 33% to 58%.
➡️ Rates vary a lot by age, ranging from 33.2% for those over age 65 to 75% for those under age 18.
2/ Not likely. If your kids are suddenly getting sick a lot, this is likely due to “catching up” on exposures rather than a weakened immune system.
3/ Many families w/ young kids have been hunkered down for the better part of 2 years– a good % of a young child’s entire life. While isolation had *many* downsides, we can agree that not having to suction snot out of infant noses or clean up norovirus puke was a happy upside.
1/ Q: Are cases peaking? That means it’s all downhill from here, right?
A: Sort of…. Remember that even if cases come down as quickly as they rise, there will be as many cases *after* the peak as before (think area under the curve).
2/ ➡️ And if the downward slope is *slower* than the rise, we will see *more* cases during the decline from a surge.
3/ Burning fast could be a silver lining of super transmissible #Omicron. Cases rose & fell quickly in S. Africa (w/ hospitalizations & deaths still lagging). The UK appears to have turned the Omicron corner. Many US states appear past their peak in cases, w/ regional variation:
Unfortunately, this includes New Year’s Eve plans. The perfect storm of a new variant & holiday get-togethers is hitting communities & health care w/ FORCE! Testing is in short supply.
3/ Health care is under extreme pressure with surging cases. If you can avoid even one additional contact, you are helping. This is a temporary and urgent request (from a health care provider).