Thread by @CPHO_Canada

1/7 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: w\ slower epidemic growth, cases are not doubling as rapidly as they had been. However, due to a prolonged clinical course, deaths continue to climb as COVID-19 takes its devastating toll.

2/7 This creates a bit of a paradox: when early in an epidemic there is a rapid #ExponentialGrowth of new cases but a slower accumulation of deaths, so the calculated case fatality rate (CFR) is relatively low. #COVID19

3/7 Then just as things seem to be getting better with the epidemic growth rate slowing down, deaths begin to accumulate at a faster pace and the calculated case fatality rate (CFR) likewise increases. #COVID19
#ProtecttheVulnerable #OlderAdults

4/7 But increasing CFR is only a temporary phenomenon – as epidemic growth slows near the end, the CFR will stabilize. The final CFR will still be higher than the rate that was calculated during the early part of the epidemic. #COVID19

5/7 ↑ CFR is one reason that models can ”under-predict” the #/range of deaths, even for short-term forecasting. Other factors, like outbreaks occurring among higher risk/vulnerable populations also affect accuracy of the prediction. #COVID19

6/7 It is vitally important to protect high-risk settings from #COVID19.
Vulnerabilities in these settings are a long-standing problem but it is
now incumbent upon us to solve these issues by addressing all weak points in
the system.

7/7 🇨🇦will not #CrushtheCurve of #COVID19 unless and until everyone is looked after. We have got to come #TogetherApart and do this. #TeamCanada #ProtecttheVulnerable #Volunteers #StayHomeSAvesLives