1/. Vallance & Hunt.
JH: On 28 Jan, I understand you decided not to model what the death rates would be with track & trace model b/c you decided we didn’t have testing capacity?
PV: I don’t know if that’s correct. I can't remember off the top of my head.
JH: On 28 Jan, I understand you decided not to model what the death rates would be with track & trace model b/c you decided we didn’t have testing capacity?
PV: I don’t know if that’s correct. I can't remember off the top of my head.
2/. @Jeremy_Hunt asks #PatrickVallance why one of the conditions for adjusting social distancing was changed from “preventing a second peak” to “overwhelming the NHS”.
JH: Can you tell us why that condition was changed?
PV: I'm not sure I can tell you.
JH: Can you tell us why that condition was changed?
PV: I'm not sure I can tell you.
3/. HUNT: Back on 13 March you said that the aim was to build up some kind of #herdimmunity...What was your evidence then for the existence of this kind of immunity?
VALLANCE: Well...well...I...I should be clear about what I was trying to say.
#Covid19UK
VALLANCE: Well...well...I...I should be clear about what I was trying to say.
#Covid19UK
4/. VALLANCE: It's important to recognise that decisions are made on all sorts of different grounds of which the science is a key input but it's not the decision maker. SAGE does not make decisions, SAGE gives advice & ministers have to make decisions.”
5/. Vallance tells Hunt he “can’t remember” why/if he decided on 28 Jan not to model for death rates with track & trace.
On 9/4, he rejected claims of two of his chief modellers that no modelling for the consequences of lockdown was done until mid-March?
On 9/4, he rejected claims of two of his chief modellers that no modelling for the consequences of lockdown was done until mid-March?
6/. On 28 April, John Edmunds - one of the SAGE scientists whose claim that the govt didn't start modelling for #COVID19 lockdown until the middle of March, was dismissed by Vallance👆- was asked the same question by @cathynewman.
He doesn’t deny it.
He doesn’t deny it.
These 12/3 minutes show @DHSCgovuk conducted polling which found that 73% wanted big public events shut down.
“Acting in a way that does not meet expectations poses a risk that a section of the public will view Govt actions as incompetent or not in the public’s best interests.”
“Acting in a way that does not meet expectations poses a risk that a section of the public will view Govt actions as incompetent or not in the public’s best interests.”
This was one of the govt’s main modellers, Prof John Edmunds, on 13/3 dismissing the need for lockdown.
“For what gain?” he asks @mattfrei.
The man with his head in hands is @tomaspueyo whose modelling showed lockdown is vital for combating #coronavirus.
“For what gain?” he asks @mattfrei.
The man with his head in hands is @tomaspueyo whose modelling showed lockdown is vital for combating #coronavirus.
Here’s Prof John Edmunds on 28 April being asked about herd immunity by @cathynewman.
He is much less bullish 6 weeks and 30,000 deaths on.
He is one of the scientists advising the govt about easing the lockdown & sending children back to schools now.
He is much less bullish 6 weeks and 30,000 deaths on.
He is one of the scientists advising the govt about easing the lockdown & sending children back to schools now.
Some more inexplicable memory loss from member of SAGE, @JeremyFarrar on 14/5.
@KirstyWark asks him if SAGE recommended an end to contract tracing on 12 March.
“I can’t remember” he says.
If only SAGE’s kept minutes of their meetings...#Covid19 #COVID
@KirstyWark asks him if SAGE recommended an end to contract tracing on 12 March.
“I can’t remember” he says.
If only SAGE’s kept minutes of their meetings...#Covid19 #COVID
The problem is that the scientists advising the govt on lifting the lockdown now are the same ones now admitting they got it wrong in March.
@devisridhar says lifting the #COVID19 lockdown is “pointless” if we do not have infrastructure to detect & trace
@devisridhar says lifting the #COVID19 lockdown is “pointless” if we do not have infrastructure to detect & trace
Every minister in every press conference is flanked by senior medics & scientists & starts every answer to every question saying: "We're guided by the science".
But many of the UK's top scientists👇have raised concerns about who is at "the top table". https://t.co/UzessTaqRA
But many of the UK's top scientists👇have raised concerns about who is at "the top table". https://t.co/UzessTaqRA
