THREAD: On July 1 Russians will vote on Putin’s attempt to appoint himself president for life. How are the demands of staying in power subverting his desire to strengthen the state and pulling the curtain back on the shadowy regime it coexists with? 1/10 ceip.org/p-82013
Many in the West continue to see #Putin as the symbol of 21st-century authoritarianism. In fact, the demands of staying in power continue to chip away at Putin’s state, explains Nathaniel Reynolds. 2/10
On the one hand, Putin covets a strong, centralized state, which he believes with messianic conviction to be a prerequisite for #Russia to be a great power. 3/10
On the other hand, Putin cultivates a personal regime: the elites need Putin’s patronage for power and wealth, and he needs loyal stewards to manage the bounty. Together, their hold on resources prevents alternative centers of power from emerging. 4/10
But the regime keeps the state in its shadows. Their coexistence creates juxtapositions of order and disarray. Distrust is pervasive, as elites fight to shape Putin’s directives and evade them when they can. 5/10 carnegie.ru/commentary/791…
Now Russia’s ineffective response to the #coronavirus reveals the hazards of a system that cultivates self-interest and cronyism over strong state capacity and administration. 6/10
With the onset of the #pandemic in Russia, there was no sudden turn to federalism but rather a devolution of responsibility without power as Putin chose to defer to the regional governors rather than lead. 7/10 carnegie.ru/2020/05/27/whe…
Putin uses the state apparatus as a flak jacket, forcing it to absorb the political damage from unpopular decisions and unresolved problems. 8/10
The #Kremlin was still scurrying to organize a plebiscite for the amendments in April when the coronavirus pandemic and a drop in oil prices pitched Russia into a crisis. The regime now faces a grave test. 9/10 nytimes.com/2020/06/01/wor…
The pandemic has already undermined the image of Russia as a strong state. Meanwhile, the regime remains more formidable, keeping Putin in power but exposing that the state is woefully ill-prepared to confront Russia’s most pressing problems. END ceip.org/p-82013
