1/9 THREAD: In this new Carnegie paper, Tatiana @Stanovaya explains how the power transition will reshape the Russian establishment & impact both domestic & foreign policy. She presents a new system for classifying the Russian elite into five tiers: carnegie.ru/p-81037 
2/9 The five tiers are: Putin’s personal retinue, Putin’s friends & associates, government technocrats, the regime’s “protectors,” & its implementers. The roles of these groups may evolve during the power transition, but their place in the order of things will stay the same.
3/9 Now that Russia has entered a period of political change, the Kremlin’s principal goal is to modify the political regime & give it a new lease on life while preserving the political system & heading off any threat to that system from a domestic upheaval or Western pressure.
4/9 The Russian elite is increasingly fragmented & conflict-ridden, including over ideology. This is a serious challenge for Putin, who has led his regime into a situation in which the most vocal & active section of the elite has turned out to be more radical than he is.
5/9 This lack of unity and growing fragmentation within the elite mean that virtually no lasting coalitions can be formed. Instead, each player acts according to their own corporate or political priorities.
6/9 An inter-elite schism is forming along one main dividing line: between the increasingly technocratic civilian section of the elite & the conservative, anti-Western “protectors.” It’s an escalation of disagreements over conservation vs progress, repression vs liberalization.
7/9 The regime will have to deal with these conflicts during the implementation of any scenario for the transition of power. Whether Putin remains the key player even after 2024 or allows a handpicked successor to rule the country, a deepening of this schism is unavoidable.
8/9 Russia is entering a phase in which only some kind of domestic crisis can break the accumulated impact of political inertia. This could eventually lead to the formation of a non-Putin elite, most likely composed of the same class of technocratic modernizers.
9/9 Russia’s elites put more energy into defending the regime than preserving its creator. This will last while the country is stable, but if crisis strikes, it will expose the cracks in the elites, & the regime may suddenly look far more fragile. carnegie.ru/p-81037
