THREAD: In the latest installment of Carnegie’s #GlobalRussia series, Richard Sokolsky and Eugene Rumer peer around the corner from today’s highly antagonistic U.S.-Russian relationship and imagine what the relationship might look like in 2030. 1/14 carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/15/u.s…
U.S.-Russian relations are at the lowest point since the Cold War with no signs of improvement. But that is unlikely to last forever. Global trends and domestic political dynamics in both countries will necessitate the resumption of dialogue between them. 2/14
By 2030, United States and #Russia are likely to face a different global landscape—a world with more intense U.S.-China competition, more nuclear and advanced conventional weapons, more conflicts, and technological transformations. 3/14 globaltrends2030.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/global…
Washington and #Moscow need to reengage in a meaningful dialogue to develop a framework for conducting their relationship, including cooperating where their interests coincide and managing disagreements before they escalate. 4/14
US policymakers should assume that Russia will remain on its present course at home and abroad and continue to be a contentious issue in US domestic politics for the next several years and certainly longer if it continues to interfere in US elections. 5/14 carnegie.ru/2019/05/14/rel…
U.S. should resist the temptation to seek a comprehensive reset with Russia and focus instead on carefully managing US-Russian competition, i.e. on maintaining a stable strategic balance, incl. nuclear weapons and nonnuclear, cyber, and other emerging advanced weapons tech. 6/14
The unraveling of the remaining arms control architecture between the two countries means that a high-level US-Russian dialogue on the requirements of strategic stability and nuclear risk reduction should resume ASAP, without waiting for China to join 7/14 carnegie.ru/commentary/801…
Eventually the United States and Russia will have to discuss and resolve their differences on the INF Treaty, even though it has been abandoned. Unless these differences are resolved, the credibility of the remaining and future arms control agreements will be compromised. 8/14
Managing the risk of direct military confrontation with Russia where U.S. and Russian forces are in close proximity should be another top priority. 9/14 carnegieendowment.org/2019/03/20/col…
Both U.S. and Russia share an interest in preventing more nuclear-weapons states and keeping weapons of mass destruction out of the hands of terrorists. U.S.-Russian cooperation in this sphere is necessary and serves both nations’ interests. 10/14 brookings.edu/research/prosp…
Over the next decade, maintaining security, stability, and order in a multipolar world will depend on strengthening regional security arrangements in Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East. 11/14 carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/31/rus…
At the same time, finding ways to manage competition in cyberspace and space will be of paramount importance for both countries. All of these issues should be on the agenda for the dialogue between Russia and the United States. 12/14
Reestablishing meaningful communications between the United States and Russia is not a panacea. But a sustained, high-level strategic dialogue would serve the interests of both countries. 13/14
It is not too early to ask what U.S. and Russia should want from each other over the next decade, what kind of bilateral relationship they would like to have in 2030, and how they could get from where they are today to the U.S. preferred end state should circumstances permit. END
