Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow: 1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
BIG: #Russia's @kommersant leaks confidential #UN directive on "Parameters & Ptinviples of assistance to #Syria" that #Moscow earlier slammed as "example of #West/ern manipulation of secretariats of international organizations"
The part that #Russia most critical of:"#UN not going to promote the return of refugees & IDP but will support the returnees with a view to ensuring the safe, dignified informed, voluntary, & sustainable nature of return & reintegration...right of Syrians tp seek & enjoy asylum"
#UN, however, stresses centralitu of this parameter: "Only once there's a genuine & inclusive political transition negotiated by the parties, would the UN be ready to facilitate reconstruction [of #Syria."
"..from my contacts w/ al Jubeir, other colleagues from the region it appears they all grew stronger in understanding that the reality is government of #Syria providing sovereignty & legitimate security interests of its country."
3/3 #Lavrov concludes: "#Russia always urged unity in #Arab family. Today the family has many problems. But we argue for it to live the way they want in their region. and resist attempts to have their own interests manipulated for the sake of someone else's geopolitical goals."
. @AmbJohnBolton sat down with #Russia's NSC Sec in Geneva for about 5 hours talking international security issues, #Ukraine, #Syria, #Iran. Earlier this year Patrushev was placed on #US sanctions list but said "it was no impediment for him to be meeting [American officials]"
Patrushev says himself & #Bolton failed to sign a joint communique cuz "#US wanted to include the point on "#Russia/n interference" which we didn't find acceptable.We,in turn,asked them to state that US own interference into other states' affairs is unacceptable - they refused"
The #US-#Russia expert group that #Putin & #Trump agreed to establish during Helsinki Summit will be led by Alexander Dynkin,President of Institute of World Economy & International Relations (IMEMO) (Rus Academy of Science) &Thomas Graham,managing director of Kissinger Associates
Prof.Dr. Dynkin renowed #Russia/n academic well-connected to both Rus expert community,political circles (incl Rus gov, MFA).
Mr.Graham worked on Rus at NSA under G.W.Bush,researcher @Yale.
Both men frequent visitors to Rus/US, well-known to respective crowds in both countries
#Moscow came up w/ the idea of bilateral expert council that "will seek tangency points & think thru how to get the international coop to a sustainbale track." #Kremlin believs the council shld be tasked with "crafting a new philosophy of the #US-#Russia rels."
⚡⚡🤯 👇👇#Giuliani “Why don’t you write a report and show us what you have, because they don’t have a goddamn thing,” said Trump's lawyer yesterday. Okay. Here goes. Time to revisit what we already know. Oldie but goodie. I am sure Mueller has more. thedailybeast.com/giuliani-on-ru….
#Moscow reportedly didnt allow direct passage of #WhiteHelmets to #Jordan (hence evacuation thru #Israel)while #Amman agreed to temporarily accept 'em only after guarantees frm West states they'd host them.#Canada to host 250 (activists+families),#Germany -8 activists +?families
Antonov adds,another group of #US lawmakers are planning to visit #Russia following a rare trip to #Moscow by Republican members of #Congress this month.The Ambassador noted, however,there was little chance of a trip by Russian lawmakers to #America before congressional elections
Antonov: Politicians in #Washington are very far from the people. What they are doing doesn't meet interests of American people.
Journalist on the ground in #Syria confirm all busses (121) that evacuated 6900 civilians and militants from Fua and Kfarya arrived safely to gov controlled area.
Many busses, according to eye witness, have been stoned (broken glasses).
In exchange pop Fuas and Kfarya, Jihadists and prisoners (1500) crossed in direction of #Idlib, the biggest concentration of Jihadists and militants evacuated from all over #Syria and under Turkish controlled zone.
1.Since 2005 #Russian Oligarchs have syphoned $335 Billion stolen money out of #Russia Putin himself is worth $200 Billion, and they are doing it using #Bitcoin, because its fast and effective, they use parts of it to interfere in elections.
A few thoughts on today's extraordinary meeting. Vladimir #Putin hinted that the FSB does indeed have #kompromat on Trump. Putin said he didn't know about #Trump's 2013 visit to Moscow, therefore this material can't exist. A non sequitur. Conclusion: there is a tape
Putin's offer to cooperate with Mueller is playful trolling. Mueller's agents won't be travelling to #Moscow anytime soon. In 2006 the Kremlin offered to cooperate in the Litvinenko murder probe. UK detectives visited Russia and were given the run-around, used as pawns in PR game
The limits of British diplomacy were woefully exposed. Theresa May had asked #Trump to raise the novichok poisoning of the Skripals and the death of Dawn Sturgess. Trump didn't and appears to have forgotten about them. No mention today of (alleged) #Russian state murder ops
3. #Putin & #Trump will be meet face-to-face around noon (1pm #Moscow time). The leaders have at least 3 hours scheduled for themselves after which they will proceed to another room for working lunch in a broader format with ministers and advisers.
Top international adviser to #Iran's SP Ali Akbar Velayati speaking @ValdaiClub now:says term #MiddleEast is British concept, he'd rather use West Asia/North Africa,argues due to #US influence some countries seek to play greater regional role (than they can)
Velayati:*throughout history external powers sought to dominate Mideast, #US no exception here, #Libya, #Somalia brought manifestations of western FP,#Trump seeks to undermine region,he wants to partition #Syria as they did w/ 🇱🇾 & #Iraq - bith once big, important states
Velayati: New element is after Islamic Revolution #Iran able to conduct policies independent of Western states, this is real reason why #US seeks to counter IRN.But if ot were not for #Russia & IRN, Leader of Nusra would be ruling today in #Damascus, head of #ISIS-in #Baghdad.
The need for our new report and recommendations therein is best summed up two maps indicating today's developments in #Syria:
It's a few hours after Putin & Netanyahu met in #Moscow to discuss the removal of #Iran from #Syria. #Israel responded to the UAV that crossed into its airspace from Syria with strikes at 3 military posts near its border.
NEW on coming #Putin@realDonaldTrump summit: (2nd THREAD) 1. In recent days #Moscow passed a two-page document to #Washington that should serve as a basis/draft for a bilateral communique the two Presidents should present after the #Helsinki talks.
2. According to #Rus sources #US accepted the paper but insisted an issue of "#Russia/n interference into American elections in 2016" is mentioned with due guarantees that this doesn't happen again.
3. Other statements on paper allegedly include themes of"sustaining dialogue b/n #Russia/n, #US officials,diplomats,military&security services" as well as development of economic ties,promotion of people-to-people contacts.Bilateral coop called one of factors for global stability