UK in a Changing Europe Profile picture
Jul 9, 2020 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
#Immigration was a central factor in the 2016 #Brexit referendum.

Where is the debate heading now?

@jdportes explores in our first ever #longread.

#ThursdayThread

ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-be…
First, some context.

In the Leave campaign, there wasn't consensus on post-#Brexit immigration policy.

However, when @theresa_may took over as PM she pledged, "we are not leaving the EU only to give up control of immigration."
This set the course for a more distant relationship with the #EU and only limited provisions on the movement of workers between the UK and EU in future.
The 3.5m EU citizens living in the UK also played an important role in the post-referendum period.

The government has implemented a scheme to ensure EU citizens already in the UK the right to remain in future.
One of the biggest changes from the UK leaving the EU will be a new post-#Brexit immigration system.

However, the current context is very different to that before and during the referendum.
In June 2016 net migration to the UK reached a record 333,000, with over 200,000 from #EU countries.

However, since the referendum net EU migration to the UK has fallen by around 150,000, partly offset by continued rising non-EU migration.
Public opinion has also shifted since the referendum.

#Immigration has become much less salient and many more people now say it has had a positive impact on the UK than a negative one.
So what will change in future?

Most obviously, free movement will end on 31 December.
The proposed new immigration system will include a salary and skill threshold.

For the NHS, the skill threshold will mean the salary threshold is irrelevant.

There will also be an agricultural workers scheme, but no other sectoral measures.
This new system will have two distinct effects.

For EU migration, it will mark a significant tightening of rules.

For non-EU migrants, it will be a considerable liberalisation.
What impact will this have on overall numbers?

First, EU migration has already fallen dramatically.

The impact on non-EU migrants may only be small.
The overall economic impact is expected to be neutral or slightly positive.

Had this system been in place for the past 15 years, GDP and population would be lower, but income per head would be slightly higher.
Sectoral impacts will vary, but sectors such as social care, where salary and skill thresholds may be too low to qualify, could be hardest hit.
So what next?

The proposed system sits uneasily with the government's wider economic agenda to 'level up' less affluent parts of the country.

Salary thresholds are likely to be easiest to meet in areas, such as London, where they are already high.
The biggest issue, however, is #Covid.

The policy environment has been transformed.

The current #immigration policy was designed for a pre-#Covid age and may require major rethinking in future.

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More from @UKandEU

Jun 18
📢 PANEL 1: Northern Ireland

👥 Our first panel has begun, with @DPhinnemore, @hayward_katy, Martin Fraser @IrelandEmbGB, & @jillongovt.

📊 David & Katy will present their latest polling then the panel will consider what’s next for politics in NI


Image
🗣️ "There is support for these arrangements...even if they are just getting over a majority".

📈@DPhinnemore unpacks the data from the latest report "testing the temperature", and the Protocol/Windsor Framework.
@DPhinnemore 📊 "The level of trust in the UK government is very low"

@DPhinnemore unpacks the data on levels of trust in managing Northern Ireland's interests in relation to the post-Brexit arrangements.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 15, 2021
🔊The Prime Minister has delivered his big speech on the 'levelling up' agenda ⬇

But what do we already know about 'levelling up'?

And what does the research show about how regional equality can be achieved?

Read this #ThursdayThread to find out more!🤳
Reflecting on lessons from elsewhere in Europe on how to achieve regional economic convergence, @thomasforth @ODILeeds @TheDataCity argues for a commitment to invest more in skills, transport, research and development & culture in cities across the UK👇👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/regional-inequ…
@michaelkenny_ & @TKelsey915 lay out the evidence that 'a top-down plan for place-based intervention, based upon bilateral negotiations with local areas, runs the risk of enforcing the priorities & orthodoxies of the centre'📝

ukandeu.ac.uk/long-read/leve…

@Dept_of_POLIS
Read 5 tweets
Jul 14, 2021
Our #AcademicintheSpotlight series promotes academics producing thought-provoking work on the UK’s changing relationship with the EU. This week, we feature @fiona_costello – who works on the @EUmigrantworker project at @cambridgelaw.

Find out more 👇👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/eu-migrant-wor…
@fiona_costello's research looks at the impact of Brexit on EU nationals in the UK, and how these problems are being resolved by community advice organisations.

Watch this to find out more ⬇⬇

As well as working as an academic, Fiona works with @GyrosOrg to help EU nationals access legal advice and support – allowing her to understand everyday problems facing EU nationals on the frontline.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3, 2021
Our next #IsolationInsight event on 'The Future of the EU' is about to start

Speakers:

@HelenHet20
@simonjhix
@lisaocarroll
Loukas Tsoukalis
@anandMenon1 (chair)

Watch LIVE here:

We'll be live-tweeting from this thread...
.@simonjhix: "In the medium term, Brexit is a challenge to the EU. There will be a UK model of exit."

"At some point, the UK model will seem quite attractive, which could be politically very difficult for the EU."
.@HelenHet20: "The EU's reaction to #Brexit was primarily defensive, but there was an opportunity to face the euro-ins and euro-outs question head on."

"Instead, it was seen as a potential long-term threat to the EU's credibility."
Read 33 tweets
Sep 24, 2020
Yesterday we released a NEW report #WhatWouldNoDealMean.

And, you've guessed it, this report is the subject of today's #ThursdayThread. 🧵

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
.@BorisJohnson has said that no deal with the EU would be a “good outcome” for the UK.

This report highlights what it would mean in terms of trade, fisheries, connectivity, the impact on citizens, Northern Ireland, economics, security, foreign policy, politics and more.
On #trade, the two sides would revert to #WTO rules.

We’re talking tariffs, customs checks, and regulatory checks. In other words, increased hassle, increased time and increased costs for businesses trading with the EU.

@CSBarnard24 explains.
Read 14 tweets
Sep 23, 2020
Our BRAND NEW report on what no deal would mean is out today

Our experts are giving a briefing on the report this morning...

(Thread)

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
. @jillongovt: "No deal now is not the same as last year because the financial settlement, citizens' rights and Northern Ireland were dealt with in the Withdrawal Agreement."

#NoDealBrexit
. @jillongovt: "There could be extensive disruption at the UK-EU border."

"Lots of #Brexit officials were redeployed to #Covid_19 and some things are running late."

#NoDealBrexit
Read 14 tweets

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