The race is on to find a #COVID19 vaccine. We’ve conducted an in-depth review of the development pipeline and immunization and demand scenarios. What might a #vaccine mean for the #pandemic—and society? Here are 11 tweets about what we’ve learned. mck.co/31CaSdj (1/11) 
So when could we get a #vaccine? Globally, scientists are working on more than 250 potential ‘candidate’ vaccines; 30 have reached clinical study stage; around 25 are poised to enter human trials in 2020. mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (2/11)
There is growing optimism: Scientists and governments are reporting timelines for emergency use of candidate #vaccines between Q4 2020—Q1 2021 (although we are unlikely to see vaccines for broad population use until later in 2021). mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (3/11)
Ambition and scale is bold. So far manufacturers have announced plans for around 1 billion #vaccine doses by the end of 2020 and 8-9 billion doses by late 2021. mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (4/11)
Historical precedents are also encouraging. Traditionally, attrition rates suggest that such a large pipeline could yield more than 7 approved #vaccine products over the coming years. mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (5/11)
But a number of hurdles remain. First—validating technologies: several #vaccines use unproven ‘technology platforms’ like #DNA and messenger #RNA. These vaccines raise long term safety questions and may incur more regulatory scrutiny. mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (6/11)
Second—demonstrating protection: developers need to show their #vaccine provokes a good level of antibody response over a certain window of time. Developers may want to conduct ‘enriched’ late-stage clinical trials to fully test their vaccines. mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (7/11)
Third—the right design: most teams are developing vaccines around the #COVID19 ‘spike protein.’ But if mutations occur and the spike protein changes, this could cause delays. mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (8/11)
Overall, we believe there is a strong likelihood of a #COVID19 #vaccine coming to market in the next 12 months. A vaccine would be an ‘insurance policy’ for society, creating outsize value for global citizens, #economies, and #healthcare systems. mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (9/11)
But stakeholders in the #vaccine ecosystem (from developers to policy makers), need to build in flexibility and plan robust strategies now—from product shipment, to #healthcare provider consultations, to vaccine administration. mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (10/11)
In our view, a long-term approach is essential as decisions made today will shape the #TheNextNormal and beyond. And over time, lessons from today’s #COVID19 #vaccine development pipeline could help us plan for tomorrow’s threats. mckinsey.com/industries/pha… (11/11)
