Dr Arvind Virmani (Phd) Profile picture
Aug 15, 2020 16 tweets 11 min read Read on X
#Covid cycles will recur till Govt, Busniess Orgs, NGOs & Public, understand & rigorously follow/enforce rules: (1) #Hygiene/hand wash, (2) #Mask/face covering, (3) #Distancing, (4) #Ventilation (virus filtr/UV radiation of recirculated air), (5)#TTQ (testing, tracing, quarantine
2/gpe An application of this👆🏼 learning to https://t.co/NCYwB5lHw5
3/gpc Proof that ventilation of public toilets/bathrooms or UV-C sterilization of its AC recirculated air, is critical to reducing risk of spread ( also other spaces like kitchens) https://t.co/oRUb1KKxtc
4/gpc Indian #Serum tests reveal ~60% infection in slum & one room tenament areas of Mumbai & Pune. This means there is only 20% points more to go for herd immunity. But, people living in more prosperous areas, will have to b v careful for 6-9mos. Beware of bars. Protect old,sick
2/gpc #Covid A nice graphical representation of the precautions, all citizens of the world will have to take, for a year to defeat the Corona Virus.
5/gpc Check out #Ventilation (at #4) in first tweet above
6/gpc And a graphical chart of level of covid risk under different conditions(#Masks, #Distancing, #Ventilation). I would add that #PublicToilets, even in airports, are highly risky!
7/gpc If the 5 precautions at top of thread r followed by all citizens (+ extra care of Sr citizens) then no lockdown is needed; Only rational application of these principle; by compulsion, if people don't listen. Besides hygiene, clean/fresh air in public bathrooms is critical
8/gpc #Ventilation Air conditioned spaces need #UV_C filter
9/gpc Intensity of exposure to Corona virus matters. Which is why all household members get sick if they don't take precautions during home quarantine of one member. It's also why bars, party rooms & public bathrooms are most dangerous.
10/gpc This means we will have to follow the five safety precautions mentioned in first tweet & repeated in 🧵, even after new cases decline(ie for 6-12 months) : bit.ly/2FB7mZa
12/gpc As #Air #conditioning generally dries out the recirculated air it's even more important to treat the air with #Ultra #Violet filters which kill Corona Virus in the #AC system. Rooms with individual ACs (or poor circulation)can use ceiling #UV-C lights which also kill virus
13/gpc Unless we learn and apply the lessons outlined 👆🏼in this🧵, the wily👇🏼SARS Coronavirus 2, is going to keep beating us 🙈🙉🙊💩
14/gpc Article👇🏼Supports the conclusions reached in 👆🏼🧵 trib.al/5coOggA
15/gpc #Masks (triple layer cotton mask is good for hot climate, in colder climate a synthetic middle layer may improve protection)

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More from @dravirmani

Jan 28, 2023
One should be inured to the pro-China, anti-India, bias of the Anglo Saxon world, & its subalterns [ jstor.org/stable/30030642 ], but sadly after 50 yrs, one is still not!
2/ir #India’s #rise is causing deep disquiet in the #Anglo #Saxon #World and among its subalterns. #Information #War will intensify in next 3 years, and won’t subside till India becomes the third largest economy in (current) USD.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 28, 2023
As a National Security Strategist * find it a little difficult to interpret such statements by Senior officers of the US armed forces, in the broader context of the PRC threat!
2/nss Sweet spot for PLA aggression: #Elections in raucous democracies. => Lesson: Armed forces in threatened countries, should have more operational autonomy during election period.
3/nss Post script: #India’s general election is also in 2024
Read 4 tweets
Jan 28, 2023
2/res Ths who’ve never done #research in lifetime find it difficult to understand, why this is critical, for directing commissioning & using, good policy relevant research [An internal core of researchers is key to success]. For them ideas & analysis can be bought like software📦
3/res Any org that merely reacts to media headlines, & questions raised by critics, is like a consultancy organisation, not a think tank. It can never anticipate problems, nor create imaginative new solutions. Worlds top consultancy orgs. reward salesmanship not analysis… 4/res
Read 5 tweets
Oct 7, 2022
Buddha's Golden Mean (#BGM): "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it, those who are obsessed by it, will never see a brighter future"
2/ncrh Remember these are the same folks whose neo-colonial progeny, preach us "principles" to support their selfish interests, and to "shame" us into working against our own national interest
3/ncrh The response must be rational, not emotional. Learn about India's (own) National interest, and the national interests of the major powers (Hint: USSR & PRC were colonial) to understand how "principles" are used & misused!
Read 4 tweets
Sep 25, 2022
As I have said in many talks, and as the author @pujamehra wrote, the period 2004-13, was a, “lost decade” in terms of economic policy reform, not in terms of GDP growth rate. The latter was due to the lagged effects of 1991-2003 reforms.
The effects of sept 2019-March 2022 #policy #reforms will therefore, likely not be visible in the growth rate, before FY 24 or FY 25. However, the quicker the changes in law are reflected in the rules & procedure applicable to firms, the quicker they will be reflected in growth!
3/gdpi Remember “#India #Shining” campaign in 2003-4: Bcs of lags btwn enactment of policy rfrm into law, their translation into rules & procedures, and decisions by investors, it took years to translate policy reforms into aggregate growth. Wrld econ is in much worse shape today
Read 9 tweets

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