Thread by @ArkadiuszLegiec

Short note on ongoing events in #Belarusprotests and probability of Russian intervention in #Belarus (to the resque of #Lukashenka)

1. Assurances from V. #Putin #Russia are aimed to be more repellent for protesters (as we see - not exactly efficient) less - real readiness 1/n

2. It's also playing for time - for now #Russia has its own ally in the top of #Belarus vertical of power; so its logical to keep up with him and observe devwlopment of events.

3. In the same time - #Russia is making #Lukashenka more and more dependent on Russian suppport... 2/n

...in the situation of lack amy support, from any side (so in case he stays - Russian pression will become more effective and smoothe on him).

4. Cost of such an intervention would be much bigger for #Russia than any advantages of it. Lukashenka is not so precious for Putin 3/n

5. Direct engagement of #Russia in #Belarusprotests would only foster anti-Russian attititude in #Belarus society.

6. It could be done ubder the umbrella/mask of #CSTO rapid forces for example (no impossible things for Russia in its own puppet-institutiona)... 4/n

...but there is no similar case of such an determination of #Russia - nor in #Armenia 2018, nor in #Ukraine 2013/2014 etc.

7. So still - #Russia will observe&act - not act&observe. In all possible scenarios, is better not to act right now... 5/n

If #Lukashenko stays - it means #Lukashenko stays, and #Russian influence is deepen.

If #Lukashenko is gone - there is many policy and undercover options in new political scene, to preserve its influence (financial, intelligence, disinformation, actual assets) 6/n

So in my view - no need for "green man" or any other "physical interaction" this time.

Time is ticking, #Russia stays calm and patient. 7/n END