Thread by @mchilberg

What's up with $SGMO valuation? This thread will try to show some history and the setup for what I still hope to be an outsized move. First worth noting that news will always trump technicals. First here is a month chart I've been using for the company 1/

This being a 10 year chart, it doesn't show how long $SGMO has been around but it does show virtually no trading volume and a 3 yr ceiling on the price as they were in early development stage while trying to get ill-chosen indications into pre/clinic 2/

The first wave $SGMO rally started in 2013 when the ceiling was broken. The company was talking up #GeneEditing #GeneRegulation #HIVcure and #diabetes None were ready but the volume picked up and the first big rally ensued going from around $9 to $20 3/

The end of the first wave shows up in spades with the volume spike and the candlesticks in early 2014. The pipeline was immature and the programs were not clinic-ready. The acquisition in late 2013 showed they were looking for #delivery but Ceregene programs #Fail. 4/

$SGMO sold off to$10 and then the 3yr resistance level where it tried to hold. Next leg down coincided with the $IBB peak selloff 5/

Next came 2 years of basing IBB setting up a base while $SGMO continued to creep lower to set up a double bottom which ended just as the IBB started to rally slowly. 6/

The 2nd wave rally represented about a 10x increase from $3 to $30ish. The Pipeline was moving into the clinic with #IVPRP (3 programs) for first in vivo editing. Add the catalysts for $PFE #GeneTherapy and #GeneRegulation and a dash of #celltherapy with $GILD = 😍 7/

The top of the rally was clear by the candlesticks showing an inability to sustain the top. Several catalysts as shown on chart but the biggest three included the start of the elimination of M&A premium (SM comments), freezing all #IVPRP programs and #CNS delivery delays 8/

It didn't help matters that the lead SB-525 program sort of went into stealth mode when $PFE decided they didn't want to open their kimono at ASH. Especially with $BMRN pounding away at their clinical lead. 9/

$SGMO held at the prior resistance/now support level until the March #Covid selloff. They tested $5 and quickly started to recover along with the market. We now are in a 2 yr basing period with a ceiling and floor as seen in the chart. Both are holding firm needing news. 9/

Selloff in the last 2 days didn't dent the support (floor) and the IBB weakness since mid-July don't seem to have had much impact. We now need the news. $PFE on Sep 14-15? I don't know but I love the set up with over 50% cash and deep undervalued pipeline 10/

Why is the pipeline compelling?
- HemA GT is big indication and now could be best-in-class AND first to market
- Gene Regulation platform is very compelling as seen by collabs. $QURE silencing is worth watching by not allele specific.
- In Vivo likely to resume C21. #leader 11/

Basis of $SGMO in vivo GE in C21?
Primary basis is the C19 10k statement, company references and progress noted. Plan appears to be 4th dose cohort with ZFN2 plus mods., That informs decision on P3. Update on biopsy to prove editing by YE20? clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03…
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