Prediction:
-There will be NO nominee announced to replace #RBGRIP until after #Election20120.
Here's why:
1. At least 4 GOP Members of the #Senate will come out against such a move-- for their personal political survival.
<1/n>
-There will be NO nominee announced to replace #RBGRIP until after #Election20120.
Here's why:
1. At least 4 GOP Members of the #Senate will come out against such a move-- for their personal political survival.
<1/n>
Why there will NOT be a nominee to replace #RBGRIP before #Election2020:
2. GOP will want to use this as primary election issue: Much harder to do this if they've already rammed a nomination through.
2. GOP will want to use this as primary election issue: Much harder to do this if they've already rammed a nomination through.
Why there will NOT be a nominee to replace #RBGRIP before #Election2020:
3. If election turns on a *specific* #SupremeCourt nominee (rather than a soon-to-be-named one): Huge risk for GOP, since no nominee will be fully vetted. They don't need replay of #Kavanaugh hearing.
3. If election turns on a *specific* #SupremeCourt nominee (rather than a soon-to-be-named one): Huge risk for GOP, since no nominee will be fully vetted. They don't need replay of #Kavanaugh hearing.
Why there will NOT be a nominee to replace #RBGRIP before #Election2020:
4. The disparity between handling of #RuthBaderGinsburg vs #AnthonyKennedy would be so blatant that @TheDemocrats could legitimately use it as rationale to reform the #SupremeCourt-- and likely would.
4. The disparity between handling of #RuthBaderGinsburg vs #AnthonyKennedy would be so blatant that @TheDemocrats could legitimately use it as rationale to reform the #SupremeCourt-- and likely would.
Why there will NOT be a nominee to replace #RBGRIP before #Election2020:
5. It would be such an undisguised power-grab that, if @joebiden won the presidency & @TheDemocrats won the #Senate, it would increase the odds of a true reform agenda- possibly including #ElectoralCollege.
5. It would be such an undisguised power-grab that, if @joebiden won the presidency & @TheDemocrats won the #Senate, it would increase the odds of a true reform agenda- possibly including #ElectoralCollege.
Even if GOP doesn't nominate replacement for #RBGRIP before November, progressives should be aware:
1. Delay would *increase* likelihood of GOP victory in #Election2020, both at presidential level & in #Senate races.
2. Nothing to prevent nomination & confirmation in December.
1. Delay would *increase* likelihood of GOP victory in #Election2020, both at presidential level & in #Senate races.
2. Nothing to prevent nomination & confirmation in December.
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