UK in a Changing Europe Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020 14 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Yesterday we released a NEW report #WhatWouldNoDealMean.

And, you've guessed it, this report is the subject of today's #ThursdayThread. 🧵

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
.@BorisJohnson has said that no deal with the EU would be a “good outcome” for the UK.

This report highlights what it would mean in terms of trade, fisheries, connectivity, the impact on citizens, Northern Ireland, economics, security, foreign policy, politics and more.
On #trade, the two sides would revert to #WTO rules.

We’re talking tariffs, customs checks, and regulatory checks. In other words, increased hassle, increased time and increased costs for businesses trading with the EU.

@CSBarnard24 explains.
On #fisheries, the UK would regain full control over its waters, but UK fishers would find it harder to sell their fish in the EU. 🐠
On #energy, trade will continue tariff-free but the UK will be outside the EU internal energy market, impacting security of supply and prices.

On #data, without an adequacy agreement, flows of data to the UK would require extra safeguards.
On #roads, changes to permits, regulations and border controls mean haulage will face huge challenges, with effects across the economy. 🚚

On #aviation, basic connectivity may continue through unilateral mitigations on both sides, but this will introduce huge uncertainty. ✈️
For citizens, travelling to the EU, working in the EU, driving to the EU, having health insurance in the EU or taking your pet to the EU will all require more form filling than now. 🚙 🐶 🐈
On #NorthernIreland, although the Withdrawal Agreement dealt with many issues, no deal would have major impacts on GB-NI trade in particular.

No deal would mean no bilateral means to ease trade flows and minimise checks on goods entering NI from GB.
On the #economics, no deal would be a further major shock to the UK economy.

While Covid would have a greater short-term impact, over the longer term the impact of no deal would 2 to 3 times bigger.

@thom_sampson
On #security, the UK would fall back on much less effective international instruments, like Interpol and older international treaties.

The UK would lose access to EU databases that provide vital info for tackling crime and many tools UK law enforcement have come to rely on.
And then there’s the diplomatic fallout. If the talks collapse, each side will blame the other. There will be a lot of finger pointing.

Sitting down to resume talks will not be easy, nor will cooperation on a host of other issues.
So while it is true that the gap between the thin deal the PM wants and no deal is small, there is still a huge difference.

A deal at least prevents a falling out and means we can keep talking and collaborating.

@anandMenon1 explains.
So you can READ a summary of the report here:

ukandeu.ac.uk/no-deal-brexit…
AND the full report here:

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

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More from @UKandEU

Jun 18
📢 PANEL 1: Northern Ireland

👥 Our first panel has begun, with @DPhinnemore, @hayward_katy, Martin Fraser @IrelandEmbGB, & @jillongovt.

📊 David & Katy will present their latest polling then the panel will consider what’s next for politics in NI


Image
🗣️ "There is support for these arrangements...even if they are just getting over a majority".

📈@DPhinnemore unpacks the data from the latest report "testing the temperature", and the Protocol/Windsor Framework.
@DPhinnemore 📊 "The level of trust in the UK government is very low"

@DPhinnemore unpacks the data on levels of trust in managing Northern Ireland's interests in relation to the post-Brexit arrangements.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 15, 2021
🔊The Prime Minister has delivered his big speech on the 'levelling up' agenda ⬇

But what do we already know about 'levelling up'?

And what does the research show about how regional equality can be achieved?

Read this #ThursdayThread to find out more!🤳
Reflecting on lessons from elsewhere in Europe on how to achieve regional economic convergence, @thomasforth @ODILeeds @TheDataCity argues for a commitment to invest more in skills, transport, research and development & culture in cities across the UK👇👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/regional-inequ…
@michaelkenny_ & @TKelsey915 lay out the evidence that 'a top-down plan for place-based intervention, based upon bilateral negotiations with local areas, runs the risk of enforcing the priorities & orthodoxies of the centre'📝

ukandeu.ac.uk/long-read/leve…

@Dept_of_POLIS
Read 5 tweets
Jul 14, 2021
Our #AcademicintheSpotlight series promotes academics producing thought-provoking work on the UK’s changing relationship with the EU. This week, we feature @fiona_costello – who works on the @EUmigrantworker project at @cambridgelaw.

Find out more 👇👇

ukandeu.ac.uk/eu-migrant-wor…
@fiona_costello's research looks at the impact of Brexit on EU nationals in the UK, and how these problems are being resolved by community advice organisations.

Watch this to find out more ⬇⬇

As well as working as an academic, Fiona works with @GyrosOrg to help EU nationals access legal advice and support – allowing her to understand everyday problems facing EU nationals on the frontline.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3, 2021
Our next #IsolationInsight event on 'The Future of the EU' is about to start

Speakers:

@HelenHet20
@simonjhix
@lisaocarroll
Loukas Tsoukalis
@anandMenon1 (chair)

Watch LIVE here:

We'll be live-tweeting from this thread...
.@simonjhix: "In the medium term, Brexit is a challenge to the EU. There will be a UK model of exit."

"At some point, the UK model will seem quite attractive, which could be politically very difficult for the EU."
.@HelenHet20: "The EU's reaction to #Brexit was primarily defensive, but there was an opportunity to face the euro-ins and euro-outs question head on."

"Instead, it was seen as a potential long-term threat to the EU's credibility."
Read 33 tweets
Sep 23, 2020
Our BRAND NEW report on what no deal would mean is out today

Our experts are giving a briefing on the report this morning...

(Thread)

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
. @jillongovt: "No deal now is not the same as last year because the financial settlement, citizens' rights and Northern Ireland were dealt with in the Withdrawal Agreement."

#NoDealBrexit
. @jillongovt: "There could be extensive disruption at the UK-EU border."

"Lots of #Brexit officials were redeployed to #Covid_19 and some things are running late."

#NoDealBrexit
Read 14 tweets
Sep 22, 2020
Our Director @anandMenon1 will be speaking at the @LordsEUCom Security and Justice Sub-Committee shortly

Follow the session here: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/a0…
.@anandMenon1: "Both sides need to find a way to work with each other on foreign and security policy."

"They're not negotiating partly because @theresa_may tried and failed, and because UK domestic politics have hardened."

@LordsEUCom
. @anandMenon1: "Sovereignty is not such an issue on foreign and defence - it's as much about optics."

"Foreign policy is being underprioritised by both sides. This is not just the UK - the question is whether the EU is willing to accept the UK is not any other 3rd country."
Read 13 tweets

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