Thread by @WIBC_EricBerman

Primarily historical #thread:

This makes 3.5 #INGov polls in the last month. The first of those got a ton of attention: the Change Research poll which showed Holcomb's lead shrinking to 6 points and Libertarian Don Rainwater pulling 24%. Since then:

1/

https://twitter.com/AndrewPEllison/status/1316453798789951489

Change Research: Holcomb 36/Myers 30/Rainwater 24

Internal R poll (per @lerdody): Holcomb 60/Myers 21/Rainwater 6

Crowdfunded @surveyusa poll released today: Holcomb 55, Myers 25, Rainwater 10

Unspecified poll per @AttyAbdul: Holcomb "mid-50s," Myers "mid-20s," Rainwater 8

2/

Any of those polls except the first would make Holcomb a shoo-in for reelection. But all of them would make Rainwater the most successful Libertarian #INGov candidate ever. In fact, since the 1851 constitution, only one 3rd-party candidate has ever managed even 6%:

3/

In 1912, Teddy Roosevelt split from the GOP and formed the Bull Moose Party, outpolling President Taft but allowing Woodrow Wilson to win an electoral landslide with just 42% of the vote. Basically,the same thing happened in Indiana:

4/

Ex-Sen. Albert Beveridge ran as a Bull Moose and collected 26% of the vote, finishing ahead of former Gov. Winfield Durbin. But the split in the Republican vote allowed Democrat Samuel Ralston to win with 43%, still the lowest victorious #INGov percentage ever.

5/

But Beveridge is basically it. In fact, of the 10 best 3rd-party #INGov showings, THREE of them were in that election:

6/

Beveridge 26%
Reynolds(Socialist 1912) 5.5
Templeton(Populist 1892) 4.01
Boneham(Libertarian 2012) 3.95
McWhirter(Prohibition 1904) 3.4
Bell (Libertarian 2016) 3.2
R Gregg (Greenback 1880) 3.16
Farmer (Socialist) 3.14
Harrington (Greenback 1876) 3.0
Hickman (Prohibition 1912) 2.9

The other notable number historically is Myers'. The 4 polls are roughly consistent on him. They all have 10-13% undecided, there's margin of error (5.2% in today's), and any poll is a snapshot in time...but those numbers would be among the weakest for a major-party nominee. 8/

Lowest %, major party, #INGov:

1912 Durbin (R) 22%
1992 Pearson (R) 37%
2008 Thompson (D) 40%
1904 Kern (D) 41.0%
2000 McIntosh (R) 41.7%
1980 Hillenbrand (D) 41.9%
1972 Welsh (D) 42.5%
1976 Conrad (D) 42.6%
1932 Springer (R) 42.8%

Of note on the preceding list: Otis Bowen was the 1st #INGOV allowed to run for a second consecutive term. Only five have done so (Holcomb is the 6th); four of those reelection bids landed their opponents on the list. The exception, Bob Orr, is there with his FIRST run, 1980.

One last list: in 8 of 11 #INGov elections from 1876 to 1916, the winner achieved only a plurality. It's only happened once since; you probably remember it.

11/12

Lowest victorious #INGov %s since 1851:

1912 Samuel Ralston 43%
1892 Claude Matthews 47.5%
1916 James Goodrich 47.8%
1908 Thomas Marshall 48.95%
1888 Alvin Hovey 49.03%
1876 James Williams 49.1%
1880 Albert Porter 49.2%
2012 Mike Pence 49.49%
1884 Isaac Gray 49.51%

12/12