Thread by @atatimelikethis

The issues of #manchesterlockdown and #Lockdown2 are the consequence of a failed plan, for which an alternative has not been proposed.

Would it help to explain (scientifically), in this situation

1. What should be happening?
2. Why it isn't?
3. How to move forward?

1. WHAT SHOULD BE HAPPENING?

We should be using a standard Supression strategy.

In that scenario an area in which a spike occurs should be quickly and comprehensively shut down until all cases are identified and isolated.

The "area" would be far smaller than those in debate.

Think of an area the size of a city district or smaller. But under a much stronger complete quarantine. And for max 2 weeks duration.

There would be no need for an national lockdown since areas would be contained and controlled.

And the areas would be cleared up and solved.

2. WHY ISN'T THIS HAPPENING?

The short answer is it is NOT only an absence of Test Track and Trace (TTT).

Effective TTT is an absolutely crucial measure to be sure, but it's only one thing that is needed as part of a standard Supression strategy.

Explaining that would help.

CLARITY = TRUST
Our approach to #Covid19 has been to jump from one idea to the next.

No sooner had people learned about one idea by next week another big thing was the solution:

Containment
Ventilators
PPE
NHS Tests
Airport Closures
National Tests
Travel Corridors
⏬
MADNESS

This is the sort of madness that undermines everything.

But what's crazy is it's completely unnecessary.

#COVID19 may be new, and highly transmissible but the approaches to stop it are NOT
New and Experimental

So why isn't this happening?

The problem is HMG can't do it.

And no I don't just mean TTT.

What do you need to win vs a Virus like this?

1. Educate: Explanation of the strategy so people understand
2. Criteria covering how non symptomatic people take part including monitoring
3. Quarantine Criteria
4. Effective TTT
5. Enforced Isolation

I've explained these at length elsewhere so I won't repeat but I will clarify.

This strategy fails if its parts fail.

eg. If you don't educate on WHY (all our ads are what), people resist.

If your criteria are opaque they're seen as unfair

No monitoring = no early warning

Poor enforcement, especially at borders = guaranteed randomly dispersed spikes

And then TTT.

NOT "we're doing more than ever" or "best in Europe"

ONLY, "Does it work?"

If you can't stamp out those spikes in 2 weeks, areas get stuck. As Manchester has been for 12 weeks now.

I hope it's clear we're not missing just one part but all parts of that plan

And sadly the plan cannot start at this point. It needs virus levels to be something like they were in July

True madness is forcing an ineffective level 3 plan, rather than fixing Suppression

3. HOW TO MOVE FORWARD.
I can't solve the politics, but the outcome must be.

1. The Supression plan must go in. I would staff it with a lot of smart, diligent currently unemployed people.

2. The explanation must be comprehensive.

3. It will need a circuit break to reboot

And it will, in part, need to do things like forcibly impose lockdowns, obligate app use and monitoring reporting.

Will the freedom loving British people accept that?

If in return we stop ever changing rules, random lockdowns and travel bans that don't work.

They just might.