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28 Oct, 6 tweets, 8 min read
Oct 28 #COVID19 in #Canada (1/4)

Canada & high income countries with pop >20M (our peers)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

TAKE-HOME: Canada has 3rd worst CASE FATALITY RATE

CFR 4.5%, #3 of 11 countries, including USA

Only Italy and UK are higher

WHY? Residential care deaths
Oct 28 #COVID19 in #Canada (2/4)

Estimated CFR = deaths/cases

#Canada & high income countries w/ pop >20M

Avg cumulative Deaths/million: 339
CAN: 265 (#6/11)

Avg cumulative Cases/million: 9,588
CAN: 5,906 (#6/11)
Oct 28 #COVID19 in #Canada (3/4)

80.4% of all #Canadian deaths to date are linked to residential care settings (longterm & congregate care, retirement homes)

Oct 28 #COVID19 in #Canada (4/4)

1. % total deaths linked to residential care, BY DATE (Chart 1)

NOTE: Trending up

2. % total deaths linked to residential care, BY PROVINCE (Chart 2)

Shown: provinces w/ >35 deaths to date

Data: @NoLore
@CoulSim @howsmyflattenON @CovidDesinfo @community_sos @covid_canada @Gab_H_R @jkwan_md @IacovosMichael @Sue_Innovates @covid19qc @Billius27 @JPSoucy @AAlJaishi @coachRankine @EdTubb @Patrickdery @imgrund
Forgot that Twitter guy @DFisman @fisman_n. Unforgiveable.

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More from @MoriartyLab

Moriarty Lab Profile picture
28 Oct
Important preprint: @LauraCRosella and colleagues.

Estimating excess mortality in #Ontario during #COVID19 first wave using cremation data

Some observations summarized in thread.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110โ€ฆ
Cremation numbers in #Ontario at peak of #COVID19 1st wave vs 2017-2019:

โฌ†๏ธ>30% deaths all ages
โฌ†๏ธ38% deaths in >75 age grp
โฌ†๏ธ89% deaths in longterm care homes
โฌ†๏ธ68% deaths at home

No significant change: hospitals deaths
Study monitors cremations as death indicator.

In ON ~70% of deaths cremated. No change in this rate from 2017-2019 to 2020.

So, increased cremations not due to increased cremation "popularity". Instead, likely related to excess mortality directly & indirectly due to #COVID19.
Read 25 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
27 Oct
Oct 27 update: TAKE HOME

#Canada is performing similar to peers such as Germany in testing & controlling #COVID19 spread.

OUR FAILURE: When #Canadians get COVID-19 weโ€™re more likely to die.

WHY? Longterm, congregate care, retirement homes.

1/11
Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATE (CFR) among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Italy
2. UK
3. #Canada (declining)
4. Australia
5. Spain
6. France
7. US
8. Germany
9. Japan
10. South Korea
11. Poland
12. Taiwan

2/11
Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 DEATHS per capita among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Spain
2. US
3. UK
4. Italy
5. France
6. #Canada
7. Germany
8. Poland
9. Australia
10. Japan
11. South Korea
12. Taiwan

Why is this better than Canadaโ€™s CFR?

3/11
Read 19 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
26 Oct
Oct 26 update: TAKE HOME

#Canada is performing similar to peers such as Germany in testing & controlling #COVID19 spread.

OUR FAILURE: When #Canadians get COVID-19, weโ€™re more likely to die.

WHY? Longterm, congregate care, retirement homes.

Thread

1/10
Oct 26

Cumulative #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATE among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Italy
2. UK
3. #Canada
4. Spain
5. Australia
6. France
7. US
8. Germany
9. Japan
10. South Korea
11. Poland
12. Saudi Arabia
13. Taiwan
Oct 26

Cumulative #COVID19 DEATHS per capita among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Spain
2. US
3. UK
4. Italy
5. France
6. #Canada
7. Saudi Arabia
8. Germany
9. Poland
10. Australia
11. Japan
12. South Korea
13. Taiwan

3/10
Read 9 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
25 Oct
Oct 25 update

Cumulative #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATE among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Italy
2. UK
3. #Canada
4. Spain
5. Australia
6. France
7. US
8. Germany
9. Poland
10. Japan
11. South Korea
12. Saudi Arabia
13. Taiwan

WHY? Thread... Image
Oct 25 update

Cumulative #COVID19 DEATHS per capita among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Spain
2. US
3. UK
4. Italy
5. France
6. #Canada
7. Saudi Arabia
8. Germany
9. Poland
10. Australia
11. Japan
12. South Korea
13. Taiwan Image
Oct 25 update

Cumulative #COVID19 CASES per capita among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. US
2. Spain
3. France
4. UK
5. Saudi Arabia
6. Italy
7. Poland
8. #Canada
9. Germany
10. Australia
11. Japan
12. South Korea
13. Taiwan Image
Read 9 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
24 Sep
OK, #Canadian scientists, #science students, science influencers, scientific societies, student & postdoc unions, and everyone else who may know someone w/ science postgraduate training

We (@COVID_19_Canada ) and the province of #Ontario really need your help...every one of you.
Ontario needs to hire and train hundreds of people to work in #COVID-19 testing labs. This needs to be done w/in 3 weeks.

We are fielding requests from multiple testing labs who need scientists w/ the following qualifications:

1. At least a Masters or scheduled to graduate soon
2. Available IMMEDIATELY (in the next 1-3 weeks) for full-time paid work for temporary short-term contracts (at least 6 months, renewable, very likely to be renewed)

3. Live w/in commute distance of an #Ontario testing lab (throughout the province) or willing to quickly relocate
Read 10 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
22 Sep
To respond to #COVID-19 misinformation & provide support to communities from scientists @COVID_19_Canada is now conducting kitchen table-style virtual discussions in communities & posting open access "explainers" translated into multiple languages covid19resources.ca/explained.html
Communities who would like to hold kitchen table-style #COVID-19 discussions (in any of all major languages spoken in Canada), you can request scientists here: covid19resources.ca/requestvolunteโ€ฆ

We try to place volunteers already connected to communities to build longterm relationships.
Media, newspapers, journalists etc in under-served regions, you can publish our #COVID-19 Science Explained pieces free of charge if you credit us (pls let us know).

Scientists who want to contribute pieces pls go here: covid19resources.ca/explained.html
Read 6 tweets

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