Thread by @MoriartyLab

Oct 27 update: TAKE HOME

#Canada is performing similar to peers such as Germany in testing & controlling #COVID19 spread.

OUR FAILURE: When #Canadians get COVID-19 we’re more likely to die.

WHY? Longterm, congregate care, retirement homes.

1/11

Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATE (CFR) among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Italy
2. UK
3. #Canada (declining)
4. Australia
5. Spain
6. France
7. US
8. Germany
9. Japan
10. South Korea
11. Poland
12. Taiwan

2/11

Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 DEATHS per capita among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Spain
2. US
3. UK
4. Italy
5. France
6. #Canada
7. Germany
8. Poland
9. Australia
10. Japan
11. South Korea
12. Taiwan

Why is this better than Canada’s CFR?

3/11

Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 CASES per capita among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. US
2. Spain
3. France
4. UK
5. Italy
6. Poland
7. #Canada
8. Germany
9. Australia
10. Japan
11. South Korea
12. Taiwan

Canada has controlled epidemic better.

4/11

Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 TESTS PER CAPITA among high income countries with populations >20M

High to low:

1. US
2. UK
3. Australia
4. Spain
5. #Canada
6. Italy
7. Germany
8. Poland
9. South Korea
10. Japan
11. Taiwan

Why do some w/ lowest case numbers test least?
5/11

Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 TESTS PER CASE among high income countries with populations >20M

Best to worst:

1. Australia
2. Taiwan
3. South Korea
4. Germany
5. #Canada
6. UK
7. Japan
8. Italy
9. Poland
10. US
11. Spain

Smaller epidemic = more tests/case (not always).
6/11

Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 TEST POSITIVITY (%) among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Spain
2. US
3. Pol
4. Ita
5. Jap
6. UK
7. #Canada (2.2%)
8. Ger
9. SK
10. Tai
11. Aus

>2.5% warning bells, not enough testing to control epidemic (roughly)
7/11

Oct 27: TAKE HOME

#Canada is performing similar to peers such as Germany in testing & controlling #COVID19 spread.

OUR FAILURE: When #Canadians get COVID-19, we’re more likely to die.

WHY? Longterm, congregate care, retirement homes (residential care settings).

8/11

Oct 27: 80.4% of #Canada's #COVID19 deaths are linked to residential care settings (cumulative to date).

9/11

https://twitter.com/NoLore/status/1320925894081499137?s=20

Oct 27: Change in cumulative percentage of #Canada's #COVID19 deaths linked to residential care settings over time.

NOTE: This is trending up again….

Data: @NoLore

10/11

Oct 27: Cumulative percentage of #Canada's #COVID19 deaths linked to residential care settings to date, by province (provinces with >100 deaths).

Data: @NoLore

Province and age-stratified case fatality rates (not specific to residential care) coming soon from @jpsoucy.

11/11

BTW these are generalizations. The intent of this thread is to help #Canadians monitor how adequately we are preventing #COVID19 deaths linked to residential care settings.

We must advocate for our most vulnerable. Each of us must do everything WE can to protect them.

@geri_md_mom @docmoser @prof_TamaraDaly @DrVivianS @AminaJabbar @DrKateTO @JennAnnWatt @camilla_wong @GERONursing @i1togotothere @NathanStall @DrSamirSinha @jkwan_md @IrfanDhalla @jwoodgett @picardonhealth @Sue_Innovates @IacovosMichael @Aaron_Derfel

Testing more focused format below.

Would greatly appreciate feedback.

Oct 27 #COVID19 in #Canada (1/4)

Canada & high income countries with pop >20M (our peers)
🇨🇦🇦🇺🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇯🇵🇵🇱🇰🇷🇪🇸🇹🇼🇬🇧🇺🇸

Cumulative case fatality rates, deaths & cases/million

TAKE-HOME: Canada has 3rd worst CASE FATALITY RATE

Only ITA, GBR worse

WHY? Residential care home deaths

Oct 27 #COVID19 in #Canada (2/4)

#Canada & high income countries w/ pop >20M (our peers)

Avg cumulative Case Fatality Rate: 3.1%
#Canada (3rd worst: 4.5%)

Avg cumulative Deaths/million: 315
CAN: 263 (#6/12)

Avg cumulative Cases/million: 9,196
CAN: 5,835 (#7/12)

Oct 27 #COVID19 in #Canada (3/4)

80.4% of all #Canadian deaths to date are linked to residential care settings (longterm & congregate care, retirement homes)

https://twitter.com/NoLore/status/1320925894081499137?s=20

Oct 27 #COVID19 in #Canada (4/4)

1. % deaths linked to residential care, by date (Chart 1: cumulative)

NOTE: Trending up again

2. % deaths linked to residential care, by province (Chart 2: cumulative)

WORST-BEST: #QC, #ON, #AB, #BC

Data: @NoLore

P.S. for those who didnt notice, the y- axis on the line graph is 80-87% (% total #Canadian #COVID19 deaths linked to residential care).

We've "improved" from 86% to 81%. And it's starting to trend back up.

Nice, somewhat smug Cdn complacency means ignoring this about ourselves