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4 Nov, 4 tweets, 4 min read
Update: Nov 4

RESIDENTIAL CARE (longterm care, retirement home) #COVID19 deaths, cases, case fatality rates

#Canada, provinces w/ >200 cases/100K ppl

1) Wave 1 vs 2 comparisons 2) % change in Wave 2 data from preceding week

Tx @RyersonNIA @covid_canada @NoLore for data. Image
For daily report of deaths in specific homes across the country, see
@RyersonNIA national longterm care/retirement home #COVID19 tracker is here: ltc-covid19-tracker.ca

Daily case numbers in all settings are from @covid_canada
covid19tracker.ca
I'll post updates twice weekly, to reflect update schedule of @RyersonNIA LTC COVID-19 tracker.

Also, will separate out Wave 1 and 2 with an Aug 1 separation date (instead of May 25) once I can find OECD & province-specific data for that date/find someone to help get them.

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More from @MoriartyLab

Moriarty Lab Profile picture
6 Nov
Nov 6 update:

#Canadian #COVID19 long term care, retirement home DEATHS and CASES

For provinces w/ >200 cases/100K ppl

1) Wave 1 vs 2 comparisons 2) % change in Wave 2 data from preceding week

We have now exceeded per capita LTC/RH cases and deaths during Wave 1.

Thread Image
Per capita #COVID19 deaths increasing in #Alberta #BC #Manitoba #Ontario #Quebec

#Canada: Avg per capita deaths have increased 8% since last week Image
Per capita #COVID19 cases increasing in #Alberta #BC #Manitoba #Ontario #Quebec #Saskatchewan

#Canada: Avg per capita cases have increased 14% since last week Image
Read 8 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
6 Nov
#Canadian scientists pls RT to get word out to colleagues in #Manitoba or even Northern #Ontario or #Saskatchewan who might have filter tips to help w/ #COVID19 testing
@CBCMarina if you have info about who to contact about the tips I can share more widely. I'm following you know in case you need to DM
@jwoodgett @AntibioticDoc @CSM_SCM @CanSocVirol @COVID_19_Canada @DFisman @NightShiftMD @YoniFreedhoff @GermHunterMD @DrJenGunter @heysciencesam @ImogenRCoePhD @paimadhu @ChiefSciCan @CBCQuirks @picardonhealth

Can you help amplify pls? It's ok if you can't. Thanks
Read 5 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
28 Oct
Important preprint: @LauraCRosella and colleagues.

Estimating excess mortality in #Ontario during #COVID19 first wave using cremation data

Some observations summarized in thread.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Cremation numbers in #Ontario at peak of #COVID19 1st wave vs 2017-2019:

⬆️>30% deaths all ages
⬆️38% deaths in >75 age grp
⬆️89% deaths in longterm care homes
⬆️68% deaths at home

No significant change: hospitals deaths
Study monitors cremations as death indicator.

In ON ~70% of deaths cremated. No change in this rate from 2017-2019 to 2020.

So, increased cremations not due to increased cremation "popularity". Instead, likely related to excess mortality directly & indirectly due to #COVID19.
Read 25 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
28 Oct
Oct 28 #COVID19 in #Canada (1/4)

Canada & high income countries with pop >20M (our peers)
🇦🇺🇺🇸🇬🇧🇹🇼🇪🇸🇰🇷🇯🇵🇮🇹🇩🇪🇫🇷🇨🇦

TAKE-HOME: Canada has 3rd worst CASE FATALITY RATE

CFR 4.5%, #3 of 11 countries, including USA

Only Italy and UK are higher

WHY? Residential care deaths
Oct 28 #COVID19 in #Canada (2/4)

Estimated CFR = deaths/cases

#Canada & high income countries w/ pop >20M

Avg cumulative Deaths/million: 339
CAN: 265 (#6/11)

Avg cumulative Cases/million: 9,588
CAN: 5,906 (#6/11)
Oct 28 #COVID19 in #Canada (3/4)

80.4% of all #Canadian deaths to date are linked to residential care settings (longterm & congregate care, retirement homes)

Read 6 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
27 Oct
Oct 27 update: TAKE HOME

#Canada is performing similar to peers such as Germany in testing & controlling #COVID19 spread.

OUR FAILURE: When #Canadians get COVID-19 we’re more likely to die.

WHY? Longterm, congregate care, retirement homes.

1/11
Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATE (CFR) among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Italy
2. UK
3. #Canada (declining)
4. Australia
5. Spain
6. France
7. US
8. Germany
9. Japan
10. South Korea
11. Poland
12. Taiwan

2/11
Oct 27: Cumulative #COVID19 DEATHS per capita among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Spain
2. US
3. UK
4. Italy
5. France
6. #Canada
7. Germany
8. Poland
9. Australia
10. Japan
11. South Korea
12. Taiwan

Why is this better than Canada’s CFR?

3/11
Read 19 tweets
Moriarty Lab Profile picture
26 Oct
Oct 26 update: TAKE HOME

#Canada is performing similar to peers such as Germany in testing & controlling #COVID19 spread.

OUR FAILURE: When #Canadians get COVID-19, we’re more likely to die.

WHY? Longterm, congregate care, retirement homes.

Thread

1/10
Oct 26

Cumulative #COVID19 CASE FATALITY RATE among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Italy
2. UK
3. #Canada
4. Spain
5. Australia
6. France
7. US
8. Germany
9. Japan
10. South Korea
11. Poland
12. Saudi Arabia
13. Taiwan
Oct 26

Cumulative #COVID19 DEATHS per capita among high income countries with populations >20M

Worst to best:

1. Spain
2. US
3. UK
4. Italy
5. France
6. #Canada
7. Saudi Arabia
8. Germany
9. Poland
10. Australia
11. Japan
12. South Korea
13. Taiwan

3/10
Read 9 tweets

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