Thread by @srookejd

Rebuilt my PA Forecasting model using updated county-level data from PA SOS.

Model forecasts that Biden could win by 185K votes once all of the still-to-be-counted ballots are counted.

#Election2020 #CountEveryVote #Pennsylvania

Here's what three different approaches suggest potential outcomes in #pennsylvania. There are more uncounted ballots in counties where registered Democrats have a big number advantage than in counties where GOP voters have any advantage.

Looks good for Biden.

#Election2020

What a difference 45 minutes makes. My forecasted margin of victory for Joe Biden in #pennsylvania went down by about 30%, but he's still projected to win by 94K votes. Models are also starting to triangulate.

Come on Joe!

#Election2020 #CountEveryVote

This also reflects that about 50% of the outstanding ballots from districts where Republicans have an advantage were reported.

There are 3x as many ballots in counties where Democrats have a 10% advantage to comparable counties for Republicans.

#Election2020 #Pennsylvania2020