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6 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/3 UPDATE (2:30am ET): PA SOS ballot totals haven't updated since my 12am ET post, but # of uncounted ballots has decreased. This could reflect:
1. Vote totals haven't uploaded
2. The status of ballots is lagging and are now catching up

#ElectionResults2020 #CountEveryVote
2/3 While I suspect it is #1, without knowing for sure I don't want to publish misleading or inaccurate model results.

The number of counted ballots has gone down by 44K since 11pm, but only 10K ballots have been reported. If it is #1, then it is likely that Biden leads Trump.
3/3 However, if it is #2, then Biden's forecasted margin of victory is slightly smaller (~80K). However, until the SOS Posts more data, I cannot confidently say.

Regardless, it still looks like good news for #BidenHarris2020
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More from @srookejd

Stephen Rooke Profile picture
6 Nov
UPDATE (10:30pm ET): @SenBobCasey is on CNN saying that @JoeBiden should win #Pennsylvania2020 by ~100K votes. This is consistent with my forecasting models, which are showing a 93K vote margin for #BidenHarris2020 once mail-in ballots have been counted.

#ElectionResults2020
FACT CHECK: @SenBobCasey stated that Biden is winning ~80% of mail-in ballots in Lehigh County. @JoeBiden has won 77.8% of mail-in ballots in Lehigh, so I'm calling this one true.

#CNNElection #PennsylvaniaForBiden
The predicted winning margin for #BidenHarris2020 in #Pennsylvania has been pretty stable for the past 8 hours.

#ElectionResults2020 #Election2020 #CountEveryVote
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Rooke Profile picture
5 Nov
Rebuilt my PA Forecasting model using updated county-level data from PA SOS.

Model forecasts that Biden could win by 185K votes once all of the still-to-be-counted ballots are counted.

#Election2020 #CountEveryVote #Pennsylvania
Here's what three different approaches suggest potential outcomes in #pennsylvania. There are more uncounted ballots in counties where registered Democrats have a big number advantage than in counties where GOP voters have any advantage.

Looks good for Biden.

#Election2020
What a difference 45 minutes makes. My forecasted margin of victory for Joe Biden in #pennsylvania went down by about 30%, but he's still projected to win by 94K votes. Models are also starting to triangulate.

Come on Joe!

#Election2020 #CountEveryVote
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Rooke Profile picture
3 Nov
I analysed 3K @PizzaToThePolls orders. Glad to see support for voters in long lines!

But most pies are going to majority-white ZIPs where there tend to be fewer barriers.

Let's not miss anyone! Spread the word!

polls.pizza

@BarackObama @NAACP #BlackLivesMatter Image
Here's an interactive dashboard of the data.

Ok, lunch break over. Back to work!

Vote!

datastudio.google.com/s/n0Dx45ZxuUs
Here's the break down using the 2018 ACS 5-year survey.

@PizzaToThePolls

Report long lines @ polls.pizza

#pizzagate2020 #pizzadelivery #pizzatothepolls #ElectionDay Image
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Rooke Profile picture
19 Apr 19
1/ McGahn is right that “real lawyer[s]” take notes. This is one of the first lessons of 1L legal practice.

It doesn’t surprise me that @realDonaldTrump lawyers didn’t take notes, especially when he holds up Roy Cohn as an example of a great lawyer. Here’s why... #MuellerReport
2/ Lawyers take notes to create a record and so they can fulfill their clients’ interests—especially when working on multiple matters. Relying on one’s memory is dangerous. Even lawyers need to “refresh their recollection” and having a contemporaneous record is essential.
3/ We also grant lawyers attorney-client privilege to protect their notes and work product so there is rarely a reason to not take notes.

* Yes, I know, McGahn did not have privilege here. But it’s good for the country that our government lawyers create records.
Read 12 tweets
Stephen Rooke Profile picture
18 Apr 19
1/ AG Barr’s assertion that @wikileaks publication is not a crime because it didn’t participate in the hacks is unpersuasive. Wikileaks was aware that the info had been acquired unlawfully, solicited more data, and actively coordinated dumps in furtherance of the criminal purpose
2/ The crimes committed by Russia did not stop once the hack was over. The criminal purpose was to acquire information and distribute it for the purpose of influencing or disrupting the election.
3/ @wikileaks proactively sought to become a “resource/player in the US election” to encourage more leaks
Read 12 tweets

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