Thread by @CasMudde

Very disappointing to see the power struggle play out so openly already now. To be clear, @AOC did not start it, but this doesn't help either. #ShortThread theguardian.com/us-news/2020/n…

1. Even before Biden was crowned "president-elect" the different sides opened up the power struggle. Progressives mainly through social media, centrists mainly through traditional media.

2. Progressives argued that they had increased turnout, including in swing states (eg Omar in MN), and thereby won Biden the election.

3. Centrists argued that progressives (notably "The Squad") had almost cost them (re-)election, because centrists got portrayed as "dominated" by progressives (main frame of Trump campaign).

4. Unsurprisingly, the centrist framing was amplified by liberal media, using Florida as an example (based primarily on highly specific group of Cuban Americans who are particularly concerned about "socialism").

5. Progressives fear to be squeezed out of the Biden administration, which in past days has been emphasizing "healing" and working with (moderate) Republicans.

6. It is in this context that AOC's remarks must be seen. The "truce" was already over, from both sides.

7. It is FAR too early to make any informed statements on why Dems won or lost anything and National Exit Poll should be treated with extra caution.

8. Both sides are promoting pseudo-scientific studies to make their case. Aggregate studies will not tell us much.

9. Given how divided the US is, including inside the two parties (but at the moment mainly the Democratic Party), there is a good chance both sides are right.

10. Progressives seem to have driven up turnout in dark blue districts, which have helped turn some swing states (particularly up North).

11. But progressives might also have scared away some "moderate Republicans/Independents" in other parts, notably in the South.

12. Given some fundamental policy and strategy differences, as well as pure power motives, this struggle will play out within the Democratic Party for years to come.

13. And given that Biden's cabinet is being formed in the next few weeks, it makes sense that it intensifies now.

14. Unfortunately, there is another very important, more short-term, struggle, namely the run-offs for two crucial Senate seats in Georgia in January.

15. In this context, this struggle is very problematic. It makes the party look divided and, therefore, weak. It could also undermine the concerted effort to maximize turnout together.

16. I don't have data, but I would think that this struggle also plays out among Georgia Democrats, not just the party establishment but also the base.

17. I assume the division is partly urban-rural (with progressives mainly in Atlanta), but more young-old. Traditionally, though, Georgia Republicans are centrists, and this includes the African American community.

18. This means that more aggressive and assertive progressive position, amplified as "hostile" by liberal media, could scare some more voters away than attract (new) voters. I say "could" because, as said before, we know very little at this point.

19. I hope, for the sake of the Georgia run-offs, and therefore national politics, the two camps can keep their differences as much as possible outside of (social) media and show a united front.

20. More than anything, I hope that progressives and centrists don't come down to Georgia to fight their national battle down here! Support your favorite Democratic groups in Georgia, who will work together, and keep your struggle out of Georgia till after January 5! #TheEnd