Germany's tabloid @BILD reports that by now 94% of all infections in Berlin are untraceable. Local health administrations often do lack (after obviously useless months of preparation) basic software and data processing tools bild.de/politik/2020/p…
Looking at the rising positive share of tests, #Covid19 is out of control. And yet, it is still not the top priority for authorities to mobilize resources and keep health agencies from collapsing and improve their speed and efficiency in coping with rising numbers infections
Now, we are in the middle of an escalating epidemic situation that was of course utterly unpredictable 😱 t-online.de/gesundheit/kra…
What reasons are behind the lack of preparation? One is the fragmentation of Germany's federal and municipal government systems prevents any serious attempts of unifying local epidemic best practices
There are no nation-wide connected data bases and no common real-time software applied to collect and provide data with labs and the corona app in a timely fashion. The health ministry's internal deadline for partial digitalization of local health agencies is set for late 2021
While all staff deserves public encouragement and praise for their hard work of contact tracing, one wonders who should be blamed for the lack preparation and the missing human and technical resources?
Surprisingly few raise the question of legal and political liabilities for all this mess. Who is responsible for the break down of contact tracing? Who apologizes for the humiliating lack of preparation? Who gets sacked for the likely extension of the "soft" lockdown?
#Covid19 is a sobering experience in so many ways. It shows that a lot of citizens feel enraged by the stubborn realities of infectious diseases and elevated by denying such realities and the suffering of so many threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325480…
Finally, it reveals the failed state of public health. Germany's health minister preemptively suggested that we'd likely have many good reasons for a "mutually forgiving" attitude bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/presse/intervi… Yet, is forgiveness the proper category here?
Clearly, the least discussed emerging aspect of the pandemic is the organized irresponsibility of under-financed late modern Western health bureaucracies whether in France and Germany or in Sweden, UK and Spain among many others.
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Its difficult to explain why so many leading Western #epidemiologists and #virologists, against all advice from East Asia, still openly or indirectly suggest that "herd immunity" should be the ultimate strategic rational for Western governments responding to #Covid_19 /1
China's 82 (?) years old hero-scientist Zhong Nanshan notes: "Vaccination is the way to acquire immunity. Herd immunity won’t work – the cost and sacrifices are too huge,” ... referring to the situation when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection."/3
Beyond the international "blame game" heating up, epidemiologists, virologists and health studies researchers need proper data and/or plausible estimates on many aspects of the pandemic. Since China is weeks ahead of the curve, its data are critical to understand #Covid_19 better
Ein Beitrag im Tagesspiegel zeigt klar was falsch läuft mit der Wissenschaftskommunikation in Deutschland während (und vor der) Corona-Pandemie. Beginnen wir mit einem Zitat zur "Letalität" von Covid-19. 1/
"Gemessen an der Letalität, also der Anzahl der Fälle, die zum Tode führen, liegt sie etwas über der Influenza-Grippe: In Deutschland sterben nach aktuellen Trends zirka 0,3 bis 0,4 Prozent aller infizierten Patienten." tagesspiegel.de/politik/epidem… Diese Angaben sind problematisch 2/
Wir müssen wegen der sehr präzisen Daten Südkoreas annehmen, dass im best-case 1,48% aller Covid-19 Patienten sterben werden statista.com/statistics/109… Warum best-case? Weil es in Südkorea niemals zu einer Überlastung des Krankenhäuser kam und volle Versorgung sichergestellt war. 3/
However, there's no time for policy mistakes. "Flattening" for instance is a dangerous illusion that can and does not work medium.com/@joschabach/fl…@OttoKolbl /2
Flatting is also a totally contradictive appraoch: while the epidemiological goal is to make the pandemic last longer, the economic logic is to make the pandemic as short as possible to prevent economic systems around the world from collapsing. Flattening does not make sense /3