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16 Nov, 4 tweets, 8 min read
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.

Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:

#AZ01
#GA06
#GA07
#MN02
#NE02
#NH01
#NJ05
#NJ11
#PA17
#TX24
#VA02
#VA07

And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far:

#FL26
#TX23
Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner):

#CA48 (Clinton)
#IL14 (Trump)
#IL17 (Trump)
#MI11 (Trump)
#NV03 (Trump)
#NJ03 (Trump)
#NY18 (Trump)
#NY19 (Trump)
#OH01 (Trump)
#TX15 (Clinton)
#TX28 (Clinton)

I'd be open to anyone's math on these.
If I were to guess based on what I've seen/heard, I'd guess Biden in #CA48, #IL14, #MI11, #NV03, #NY18, #NY19, #TX15 and #TX28, and Trump in #IL17, #NJ03 and #OH01.

That would add up to Biden 224, Trump 211 nationally - a 15 district net anti-Trump swing vs. 2016.

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More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
16 Nov
2016 presidential results in Chicago, IL:

Clinton 912,943 (84%)
Trump 135,317 (12%)

2020 presidential results in Chicago, IL:

Biden 932,556 (83%)
Trump 179,278 (16%)
2016 presidential results in Detroit, MI:

Clinton 234,871 (95%)
Trump 7,682 (3%)

2020 presidential results in Detroit, MI:

Biden 233,908 (94%)
Trump 12,654 (5%)
2016 presidential results in San Francisco, CA:

Clinton 345,084 (85%)
Trump 37,688 (9%)

2020 presidential results in San Francisco, CA:

Biden 375,630 (85%)
Trump 55,988 (13%)
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
14 Nov
Tbh, I hadn't done a deep dive into the numbers in #NY22 until today and kinda can't believe I'm saying this given what else happened down-ballot, but I think Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) might be on pace to win reelection in a heavy Trump district - saving Dems a key House seat.
Per @JRosenblattTV, who has done yeoman's work tracking the numbers in Upstate NY, Claudia Tenney (R) is leading Brindisi (D) 147,890 to 138,161 at the moment.

But there still thousands of heavily D mail ballots left to count in Broome, Chenango, Herkimer & Oneida counties.
In 2018, Brindisi (D) beat Tenney (R) 51%-49% district-wide. Right now, Brindisi is already ahead of his '18 margin in Broome - which still has more heavily D mail ballots to count - as well as Tioga, which might be nearly done counting.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
11 Nov
The first state to certify its 2020 election results? Delaware:

Biden 296,268 (58.7%)
Trump 200,603 (39.8%)

That's a 7.6 point margin swing against Trump and a 14.2 percent increase in votes cast vs. 2016. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
(adding WY to start a state certification thread)
Oklahoma has certified its 2020 election results:

Trump 1,020,280 (65.4%)
Biden 503,890 (32.3%)

That's a 3.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 7.4% increase in votes cast. cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…?
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
7 Nov
Here's a list of Philly precincts that don't appear to be anywhere near the 62% turnout in the rest of the city.

Division/ballots counted as share of RVs

04-14: 18%
07-17: 15%
25-15: 24%
37-17: 13%
37-18: 20%
51-26: 22%
52-21: 23%

All these are hugely Dem divisions.
This doesn't even include the six student-heavy precincts in University City currently at 11%-25% ballots counted as a share of RVs (we'd expect turnout there to be very low, but that low?)

Meanwhile, all the Trump-heavy areas of Philly (NE, South) look about fully reported.
The point here is that it would make sense if the outstanding mail ballots in Philly are disproportionately from these "outlier" precincts - and if those ballots end up breaking by an even larger margin for Biden than those that have already been counted.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
7 Nov
Diving into the data, there are 21 Philly precincts that aren't reporting anywhere near their full vote, all in heavy D areas of the city... results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDe…?
Turnout city-wide is currently at 61.4% of registered voters, but all of these 21 divisions reported less than 30% of RV's ballots counted, with a heavy concentration in the 27th Ward around University City.

And, there are plenty of divisions in the 30%-40% range as well.
If this is where the remaining Philadelphia mail vote is from, it's bound to be even more Biden-friendly than the mail vote of the city as a whole, since almost all of the Trump-friendly precincts in NE/South Philly are at high turnout.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
6 Nov
So far in the seven heavily red PA counties that have reported provisionals, they've represented just 0.9% of all ballots and have only broken for Trump by 3.7% more than his share of the other votes (76.1% vs. 72.4%).

Here's why that's probably not good enough for Trump...
If you were to take those proportions and extrapolate them to the rest of the counties, it would only net Trump about 5k votes (+31k Trump to +26k Biden). Right now, he's on track to finish the remaining mail ballot count down by 50k+ votes. But that's not all...
Modeling off these seven counties would project there are only 57k more provisional ballots to count.

In reality, PA officials have said there are at least 92k that remain to be adjudicated/counted, w/ a much higher share in Philadelphia (17k). That's good news for Biden.
Read 5 tweets

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